December 2010
Posted by jemanji on 12/31/10
5 Comments
Forecaster now shipping. As you know, we live to serve. You, not Ron, that is.
Not that HQ is infallible, of course. For Ron's 25th Anniversary Edition, he wrote an op-ed saying, in effect, "Everybody else's guess is now as good as mine." Which is also where James, Dr. D and everybody else in the over-50 league is these days.
But HQ is a neutral source. They're not too close to the situation to see the warts on a pitcher. They're also not so DC-Current-Conditioned by "No Cheering In The Press Box" that they have to avoid saying somebody's good,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/31/10
7 Comments
=== Doug Fister, $9 ===
THE BEARDED PROPHET: Excellent command makes this one a legit ML soft-tosser. Lucky LD% and H% in first half, unlucky LD% and H% in second half --- > masked the fact that Fister actually got better as the year went on.
Pitching in Safeco, will earn you a few bucks in 2011, but there are skill sets I'd rather chase.
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Factoid: Doogie had a 3.96 xERA last year; BaseballHQ projects him to a 4.16 xERA. Guess what Zack Greinke's actual ERA was last year? 4.17.
Phil Hughes, Mark Beuhrle, John Lackey, Scott Baker, James Shields, and A.J. Burnett also... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/31/10
=== Jason Vargas, $9 ==
THE BEARDED PROPHET: Soft-tossing lefty could deliver an okay year or could implode. High contact, high flyball mix is "potentially explosive." Give him to others at $10 and let them enjoy the ERA crash that is coming.
-10 RAR.
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The Mainframe Sez: Ron's going by his skill set, which is ugly ... but not as ugly as the actual pitches this hombre throws.
I've never been able to see Jason Vargas, and that's never stopped him before... In this case, Baseball HQ doesn't give us much that we didn't already know.
Vargas' Safeco career turned around... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/31/10
=== David Pauley, $3 ===
Pauley mentioned here because he's the only other Rainier I see that is worth consideration (unless they're going to give Shawn Kelley a shot). As Dennis Miller would say, I could be wrong.
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THE BEARDED PROPHET: Journeyman managed to survive his transition into the bigs, but his K's are "sub-tipping-point." A "fifth starter in a big park" taco who is not rosterable in fantasy baseball.
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The Mainframe Sez: "Fifth starter in a big park" captures the essence of this taco very nicely, and that's rather a compliment to Pauley.
SSI is here "promoting"... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/31/10
=== Erik Bedard, $7 ===
Ah, now we're getting somewhere :- )
THE BEARDED PROPHET: When healthy, dominates. Not only racks up strikeouts, but pitches with polish (K:BB) and mixes GB% (groundball rate) into the bargain.
Has NEVER topped 200 innings. Let others chase the dream.
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The Mainframe Sez: We can certainly understand a reluctance to go, say, $15 roto. But to top him out at $7? We're guessing that Ron has blown a dollar or two on Erikkk in the past :- )
Pitching only 81 and 83 innings (!) in 2008 and 2009, he was still worth +30 runs in those two years. And +100 runs (10... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/31/10
15 Comments
=== Michael Pineda ===
THE BEARDED PROPHET: gives 50 prospects in order of projected 2011 roto impact -- Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, TAM is number one.
Ackley is #14 on the rook draft Post-It and Pineda is #15.
An interesting couple of remarks from HQ's minors guy Rob Gordon (who is at least as gung-ho as G or J) is that Pineda's slider is plus and that he has a "loose, easy delivery."
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The Mainframe Sez: Definitely, Michael Pineda has a loosey-goosey arm. We recognize Pineda's arm type from, of all things, MMA work and the touch that you get for putting a pin on such an arm.
We can... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/31/10
But, it's an error to consider Cappy a "7-K" version of Wash. He's more like a 6-K version of Wash, once you remove the K-per-game he was getting pitching to HoRam and Jeff Weaver.
What are you, an AL racist?
:- )
Capuano's lifetime 7.4 strikeout rate in the NL translates to exactly 6.8 strikeouts per nine innings in the AL. We do not accept the attempt to round 6.8 to the integer 6, rather than to 7.
Hey, if you're going to bowl into the lane with elbows doing a washing-machine twirl, I'm going to set my feet :- )
...................
From a substantive point of view (as... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/30/10
7 Comments
Our resident NL specialist has Doc Scissorhands rock'ed again:
No, Cappy isn't a star. I've actually always liked Cappy. When Milwaukee traded SEXSON to Arizona, I thought Cappy would be the real value they got. Didn't turn out quite so well, though.
AGREED agreed agreed.
We are not talking about a star with Chris Capuano, any more than we ever were talking about (say) Jarrod Washburn.
You're talking about a safe 100, 110 ERA+ and for me, that's a legit #3 starter behind two aces. But Capuano's chance to star? Is practically zero, because ...
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Here's the thing, though. Cap's HR... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/29/10
Q. Relative to the general consensus in Seattle, does the Mainframe like Chris Capuano (1) Less, (2) The Same, or (3) More?
A. None of the above.
The Mainframe likes Chris Capuano (4) Much More --- > than does the rest of Seattle.
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Q. How much is that?
A. Taking a "Shining" tour around the hotel cyberfloor on our plastic Big Wheel trike, we see that Capuano is perceived as
A low-risk, decent-return arm at best -OR- the mound version of Casey Kotchman at worst
A solid #4 starter
A back-end rotation guy you would buy because he's almost free, and LHP in Safeco
Not... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/29/10
Q. How does Capuano get outs? When he has his A game and when he has his B game?
A. He gets outs just like George Sherrill and Sid Fernandez get outs.
Upright, balanced backstroke ....... then WHOOOOoooom the center drops and drives .... he comes sidearm around the corner .... and the ball materializes in the batter's field of view when it's about 45 feet away.
It was workin' a hundred years ago, and a hundred years on, it'll still be workin'. Capuano's deception is a perfect 80 on the scale.
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Q. Is he regaining his velocity after two years of TJ?
A. He never did have velocity, or he... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/29/10
Q. Is there any cure to the gopheritis? He's allowing 1.3 homers lifetime.
A. No, because it is his willingness to throw up in the zone that ---- > gets him the 7+ strikeouts per ballgame.
Chris "Duke U" Capuano is a master of attacking batters up, in, outside the zone, and it's only the fact that he risks HR's that allows him to get swings under the ball.
As you know, righthanded flyball hitters get kneecapped here. It only stands to reason that the same would be true for LHP flyballers; it's exactly the same thing, viewed from the numerator rather than from the denominator.
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Q. ... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/29/10
6 Comments
Q. How much do the Mariners need a guy like Capuano?
A. Badly.
The only reason dudes talk about needing bats more is 'cause, like, we need bats more. But the rotation in September? Ugh. We're two cleats short of tragedy there too...
Suppose you have a 5.25 ERA (neutral field) guy at the #5 slot, running a 68 ERA+ in June. Does the fact that last year's offense was a joke, does that --- > mean it's inefficient run differential to trade a 68 ERA+ for a 110 ERA+?
..............
Right now on RotoTimes they've got Felix and a #2-5 that would have embarrassed the 1977 edition:
Felix... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 12/28/10
1 Comments
1. Left-handed he is.
2. He appears to have returned from two-plus years of injury rehab as exactly the same pitcher, in terms of peripherals, he was before he got hurt -- which isn't really too bad.
3. The Z-crew knows him from his Brewer heyday.
4. One of his baseball-reference.com comps is John Halama.
5. His b-ref comps include BOTH Dave Mlicki and Bob Milacki -- what are the odds of that?
6. Yet another comp is Al Nipper, who was the No. 4 starter behind Roger Clemens, Oil Can Boyd and Bruce Hurst back when I was a RedSox fan. Oil Can was great fun. Al Nipper I remember vaguely, but... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/22/10
2 Comments
I/O: Rick Randall with a very fine article at Jason's site. He calculates +7 wins so far with the position players.
CRUNCH: Well, we had +2 wins, maybe a tad more, each at (1) catcher, (2) DH, and (3) shortstop. Let's take a gander at how Rick matches up ...
... whoa hold on there. Rick's only got +3.5 wins total for Capt Jack's three deals ... and +8.5 at the positions that haven't been changed over. :- ) Well, that certainly sounds pleasant.
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Ah, we see, this lineup has ..... (1) Wilson equal to 2010 at short .... (2) Cust ... (3) Ryan + Figgins at +2.6... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/22/10
3 Comments
CRUNCH CF + LF: Prospect Insider gives +1 win to Gutierrez, vs 2010, and -1 win to Ichiro. A Mariners Wheelhouse fluctuated push.
Close enough for government work. We'll sign off.
Ichiro's fielding is given by Fangraphs at +15 runs in 2010 ... only +8 the previous three years in a row. Ya, you assume that to revert.
But Ichiro hasn't had a year under 4.8 WAR since Mike Hargrove had Manny Ramirez* and age 37 isn't going to be the year he starts. Kenny Lofton, for example, was exactly the same player between the ages of 34 and 40. For Ichiro you may need to make that 35 to 45 ?
If you'... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/22/10
1 Comments
Q. So Lee, Greinke and the DH adjustment mean that the NL and AL are back even-steven, right?
A. It's okay with me if it's okay with Sandy. ... never been so glad that two guys didn't go to Texas or Anaheim, though...
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Q. What's the SSI shtick on Greinke's social anxiety?
A. That it appears to have cut his market value by about 70%? I dunno.
You and I aren't in a position to comment intelligently, but if we were restricted to intelligent commentary, well, I didn't choose my avatar by no accident, babe...
GM's did indeed have to take Greinke's syndrome into account, just as if he... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/22/10
Q. Is he a reliable staff ace? His ERA+'s the last five years are 115, 125, 125, Cy, 100.
A. Greinke is a staff ace for sure.
Those ERA+'s wayyyyyyyyyy undersell Zack Greinke. Check rather his BPV's the last several years. 50 is draftable for a Shandler roster; 75 is the gem you look for:
2010: 80 (estimated)
2009: 135
2008: 100
2007: 80
2006: 80
This is a guy who walks a measly 50 men year after year, in 200+ innings, with a K rate well over 7, and he keeps homers real low.
If there were some non-celebrity doing what Zack Greinke is doing, we'd go off the rails on a crazy train... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/16/10
5 Comments
Q. What do we know about Peguero?
A. Just what the scouts tell us. Which has been -- for public consumption anyway -- long on vague, FKey7 platitudes and short on specifics.
They do tell us that Peguero is the best in the Dominican, that he'd have gone top-10 in a US ammy draft, etc. That's nothing to sneeze at.
Remember: the older the player, the more the sabermetrician rules. The younger the player, the more the scout rules. A sabermetrician wasn't going to know anything about the 17-year-old ARod, whereas a scout isn't going to be able to tell Bill James much about Adrian... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/16/10
8 Comments
Q. What's the SSI impression of the swing?
A. Gorgeous from an aiki standpoint. Basics as they apply to tenkan, to golf and to baseball hitting:
The one-point, the belly button, is powerfully driving the whole motion
The hands are short to the ball
The acceleration is a high point (short to ball, but speeding up at high rate at contact)
Great balance
He's turning, as opposed to swaying, Tiger
Not sure when I've ever seen such a swing from a 16-year-old. The kid is definitely a natural, like the Uptons. Few major leaguers have such a naturally efficient, dynamic swing.
Hey, some... Read More
Posted by Sandy on 12/16/10
Much ado has been made about the Halladay + Lee combo in Philly. This, IMO, misses the point. The REAL interest is not in looking at the top 2 ... or perhaps even the top 3. The shock comes in looking at the top 4. And considering this is the "Fillies", I'm thinking the Four Horsemen is a likely appelation: In order of (current) reputation - followed by three true outcome rates (career) - (then best of last two seasons)
Player --- (HR/9; BB/9; K/9 career) - (HR/9; BB/9; K/9) - WAR (full season recent)
Halladay - (0.8; 1.9; 6.7) -- (0.9; 1.1; 7.9) -- 6.9 - Conquest
C. Lee --- (1.0; 2.2... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/16/10
Q. What's the bottom line?
A. He'll 'wow' everybody in March, and make Safeco his personal Matterhorn, or he won't 'wow' everybody in March, and Capt Jack will get on with the Corteses and Luekes and Robleses.
We can argue all we want about how good he is or isn't. The song remains the same: he'll show us how good he is or isn't.
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Q. As with the usually-invisible, hyper-dimensional yeti, there are no convincing videos of Royce on the 'net.
Any lore we can go with?
A. Elementary, my dear Watson...
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Throws LH
Throws 83-87
Short,* stocky
Big slider+curve mix (40%)
Fairly even... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/16/10
5 Comments
Q. Are fangraphs' values on the SL / CB reliable?
A. No. Let's see:
Slider: Great pitch, 74 mph, never throws it
Curve: Terrible pitch, 72 mph, throws it 35%
Think we've got a little bit of a differentiation problem there with the f/x?
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Actually, that "slider" only shows up like 3% of the time. So you combine the "slider" and the curve into one, nightmarishly bad, pitch.
Whatever the bender is, it's a show-me pitch only.
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Q. The Yankees told him to throw all (83 mph) fastballs. Did that work?
A. In previous seasons, Yoogth the Yeti had a profile like... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/16/10
2 Comments
Q. I can show you another sub-88mph pitcher who threw all FB's and did great.
A. Right, so if the Yankees "realized" that Ring has an 84-mph fastball that dives like a spitball, and just told him to throw that, then .... that would explain EVERYTHING typed in up to this point.
Every once in a while you run into a guy whose sinker moves as if it were a spitball. Chien-Ming Wang, Derek Lowe, Kevin Brown, Scott Erickson, etc.
Tommy John threw the same pitch every pitch -- literally 90% of the time he just threw that "fastball" at the knees, and it dropped four inches just as the batter... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/16/10
2 Comments
Q. Is an extreme sinkerballer useful in the pen, or does he need to start, get the percentages going for him?
A. Sure. Probably 20 ML teams have a groundball specialist in the 'pen at any given time. If a guy throws a true ground-pounding sinker, that's a very popular guy to use in the 'pen. Managers bring them in bases loaded.
The M's themselves are very, ah, creative when it comes to pitchers with lousy CTL ratios, which Yoogth will probably have.
If they don't mind Sean White's and Jamey Wright's and even Ian Snell's 1:1's, why would they mind a weird CTL if they have a real-life... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 12/16/10
5 Comments
Fun facts to know and tell about the 17-year-old Dominican:
Esteilon Peguero was considered the No. 1 Latin American prospect available this year.
Peguero got $2.9M, the 4th-highest Latin American signing bonus ever. Bigger than Felix, Miguel Cabrera, Roberto Clemente, anybody -- except for Michael Ynoa, a 6-7 RHP signed by the A's in 08 and is now out with TJ surgery ($4.25M); Miguel Sano, a 3b signed in 09 by the Twins ($3.15M); and Gary Sanchez, a C signed in 09 by NYY ($3.0M), all of whom acquitted themselves well in their first teenage action stateside (before Ynoa's injury, that is... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/14/10
This article is a quibble, and therefore directly contradictory to everything that SSI stands for. Sounds like about four posts' worth to me. :- )
Have the Phils scored a near-fall on the World Series? See you in four posts... Dr D
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I/O: Seattle's best MSM baseball writer gushes that he'll take Halladay and Lee over Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine.
CRUNCH: I've got nothing against comparing the 1995 Randy Johnson to Sandy Koufax. Hey, I do. The best players of the 1990's were as good as the best ones from the 1960's, and the best players of the '00's are as good as the best ones from... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/14/10
Some arguments that are too intriguing to take for an 0-1 count:
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Comparing pitchers across varying eras is a difficult thing at the best of times. But look at what Halladay just accomplished -- as a 13-year vet -- the very first time he was turned loose against inferior NL opposition. A perfect game. A no-hitter in the playoffs. Could have won close to 30 games had his offense not gone on hiatus for nearly two months. A unanimous Cy Young win. Remember, Halladay is supposedly entering his twilight years.
I don't think this argument can be pooh-pooh'ed. My bias, my preconceived... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/14/10
Not a fake pic and this "mad dog" isn't being held by the woman; the dog is staked to a pole or tree off-camera.
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=== Peak Value, Continued ===
Here, let's multiply the BxH and get a rectangle. The base is IP; the height is ERA. Inside the rectangle, the area is going to be the value to your ballclub.
Here are these three aces' best 7-year streaks for WAR -- each WAR being approximately +10 runs saved, or +1 win to their teams' totals:
Maddux (1992-1998)
8.4
6.2
7.8
8.8
6.3
7.3
6.1
Total: 52.8 = 7.5 wins per season, seven years in a row
Halladay (2003-2009)
7.5
2.8
5.5
5.4
3.5
6... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/14/10
18 Comments
=== Just for 2011 ===
Who would you take just for next year? If you could have (say) the 1995 Maddux-Glavine, or the 2011 Halladay-Lee?
Both would be quite appealing :- ) but I'll tell you what. People are forgetting that the 1995 Maddux was a simply automatic win.
The memory fades. In 1995, the Braves won 18 of Maddux' last 20 starts, won their division by 20 ... and at the time, that seemed like it was pretty much Maddux' ordinary level of performance.
Right now, it seems like Lee can't lose. But it seemed a lot more that way in the 1990's :- )
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=== Lesson Learned ===
The Phillies... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/14/10
6 Comments
I/O: Much rejoicing that Cliff Lee did not join Texas or the New York Yankees.
CRUNCH: Dr. D nearly gave up baseball the day that Mike Mussina signed with the Yankees. Well, maybe not, but it was definitely the day he came closest...
I've got no use for fans arguing that payroll differences don't matter. Ask them if they want to play in a $260 roto 5x5 league, where they get to spend $100 to my $260? (Actually, Inside Pitch offered to take me up on this in an Ultra league, where farm systems matter...)
Mercifully, the Yankees have failed to clamp a Manchester United-style hammerlock on... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 12/14/10
2 Comments
Not exactly the stat most referred to by glib broadcasters or studious bloggers, but here's the funny thing. Every recent year, the leader has been either a certain future Hall-of-Famer or Miguel Olivo.
2010: Olivo, 6
2009: Olivo, 5
2008: Joe Mauer, 4
2007: Olivo, 4
2006: Pudge Rodriguez, 4; Mauer 4; Russel Martin, 4 (just ignore him)
2005: Pudge, 5
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I just thought this was info-taining. New minor-league signee Denny Bautista:
August 31, 2003: Traded by the Florida Marlins with Don Levinski (minors) to the Baltimore Orioles for Jeff Conine.
June 21, 2004: Traded by the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/12/10
Q. So if Ryan can OPS+ 75-80, he's a mediocre player?
A. If he can OPS+ 75-80, he's a good player. NOT a mediocre one! Remember:
An 75-80 hitter, who's a whiz with the glove at SS, pencils out to a league-average player
BUT
Every* manager in major league history wants this player.
There is something invisible (to stats) going on with the Gold Glove, 75 OPS+ shortstop. Managers treat them as well-above-average players.
.................
The problem with Jack Wilson was not that he OPS'ed 75-80 and played a great short. It was that he didn't.
If he had done so, he'd have been a... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/12/10
11 Comments
Q. Do you figure that Capt Jack knew about the Ryan option when he refused to bid decently on Nishioka?
A. If he didn't, something woulda been wrong...
We remember a George W. Bush TV interview several years ago, when Bush had been in office just a few years. The reporter asked, naively, "Does your father help you make decisions?"
George W. replied, calmly, as though talking about Del Monte vs. Libby green beans:
My father isn't well-informed enough to advise me about domestic or foreign policy decisions.
There's a huge element of that in the blog-o-sphere as we kibitz Jack on deals... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/12/10
6 Comments
Edit to add, now we see that everybody heard the Jack Wilson echoes in this movement. Good on yer, Capt Jack :- )
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Q. Ryan is pretty much Jack Wilson, or fairly similar to Jack Wilson, or just like Jack Wilson, or ?
A. Brendan Ryan differs from Jack Wilson in no important way whatsoever. Just think of him as a younger, healthier Wilson ... and you won't make any decisions about him incorrectly.
Jack Wilson v2.0, and v2.0 is supposed to mean "Here's the version with the bugs worked out. v2.0 is the one you want, especially if you're buying Microsoft."
Ryan is indeed the v2.0... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/12/10
Q. So you presume that Ryan plays short --- > with a Jack Wilson style?
A. We infer it, and observe it, not presume it.
Preparing to write up this POTD, we trotted by Lookout Landing, and saw that the very great Jeff Sullivan thought of Ryan as a Wilson comp. Told you he was very, very intelligent...
.............
Sully pointed out the fans' scouting report. Notice that the fans ding Ryan only for two things: footwork on the throw to first, and accuracy on the throw to first.
There you go. The man is a miracle worker at SS, with a rocket arm .... but the arm is a bit... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/12/10
Q. Do you like Ryan's chances to hit better than he did in 2010, with the bad wrist?
A. I do not, no. Ryan is going to be real lucky to get to 4.0 runs per game. (Well, he'll hit better than 57 ... reverse that, to 75. But that doesn't mean he'll be a hitter.)
In 2009, Ryan posted a nice 4.5 runs per game, based on a high BABP and based on 2/3 season's work. Since Ryan was a 100 hitter and a great defender, that made him a championship-level player.
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In the 2010 Baseball Forecaster, Ron Shandler then warned his rotochamp clientele: Do Not Buy In. Not For One... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/12/10
5 Comments
Q. Strategically, what is a guy like Ryan good for?
A. As we opined when the M's picked up Jack Wilson: SSI is sympathetic to the idea of a dependable, glove-first shortstop. That's the Whitey Herzog way.
If the SS is, further, a great defensive player, I'm more than sympathetic to the concept. I'm enthusiastic about it.
Gimme (1) a ballclub to run, and a chance to (2) put Freddie Patek or Omar Vizquel or Jack Wilson or Brendan Ryan at short, and I'll do it. Then (3) I'll get to work getting bats everywhere else.
..............
Brendan Ryan, theoretically, gives you a chance to... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/10/10
Here is Mike Fast's Hardball Times article from 2008, right after Cust's debut 148 OPS+ season.
Sure, it's three years later, but the 2008 Cust's hitting style was a lot closer to the 2010 Cust's hitting than it is to, say --- > Ichiro's hitting style. You're talking about a hitter who was die-cast by the time we got him in 2008, so the material is relevant a few years on.
Also, the current Fangraphs.com data supports Fast's observations extremely well. For instance, Fast titled the article "Jack Cust Eats Fastballs For Lunch" and we invite you to review what the Fangraphs.com... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/10/10
8 Comments
4-6 inches off the plate.
My guess is that this hasn't changed much. My guess is that it's part of what drove Bob Geren to insanity.
Ichiro never did cave into Lou Piniella's impassioned pleas for Ichiro to run straight up the line on a close throw at 1B. And I wish that Cust had just ignored all the howls for him to start swinging at pitches so the umpires wouldn't be annoyed with him.
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=== The 2007 Blindside ===
Fascinatingly, HBT notes that in 2007, ML lefties threw Cust very few changeups -- even though Cust was poor on changeups:
Cust doesn't see many change-ups from left-handed... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/10/10
Q. SSI's basic reaction to this move ... being?
A. SSI's basic reaction to the move being this:
6.7 -- Jack Cust, runs created per 27 outs, 2010
5.7 -- Ichiro
3.9 -- Franklin "MVP" Gutierrez
3.9 -- Michael Saunders
3.6 -- Milton Bradley
3.6 -- Chone Figgins
2.9 -- Casey Kotchman
2.9 -- Jack Wilson
2.8 -- Rob Johnson
2.8 -- Jose Lopez
2.0 -- Adam Moore
3.5 -- Mariners' team average
So: Jack Cust produces twice as many runs as your basic Mariner. As baseball percentages go, 90%, 100% is a good percentage.
Hey, Russell Branyan was all we needed as a cleanup hitter in 2009, when we won 85-... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/10/10
Q. Has Cust recovered from his 2009 Bob Geren "expand the strike zone" episode?
A. For those who missed the memo on this famous drama, Jack Cust's Oakland career was a tragicomedy in five or six acts:
2007-08: Cust posted 148 and 129 OPS+, and 8 runs per 27 outs, with massssssive K's
2009: Bob Geren, infuriated at Cust's taking strike threes, commanded Cust to swing more
2009: Jack Cust stopped hitting home runs, and had a mere 109 OPS+
2010: Since Geren's commandments ruined* Cust, the A's cut Jack Cust in* spring training
2010: The A's got Cust back, and superficially, he rebounded... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/10/10
3 Comments
Q. Has anybody ever approached him for a Babe Ruth movie?
How does Cust compare to Russell Branyan, if not The Babe?
A. Compared to Russell the Muscle, Jack Cust is -- >less talented, more effective ... less powerful, more productive ... less athletic, younger and healthier.
Cust is the most extreme TTO player who ever lived. Fully 55% of Cust's at-bats require no fielder.
But Russell Branyan is Three True Times the physical specimen that Cust ever was. You won't see the 450-foot-long, 100-foot-high shots with Cust; Jack is a mere mortal hitting home runs normal distances.
Yet,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/10/10
6 Comments
Q. Where is SSI on the issue of Safeco-vs-left-center power?
A. I've attended at Oakland-Alameda. The park plays very similarly to Safeco, for lefty use-all-fields guys like Cust.
Cust won't really be changing fields. He'll be in pretty much the same park, to him.
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Q. Assuming his back and shoulder are okay, what are the UP, MID, and DWN scenarios for Cust in 2011?
20% DISASTER: Cust gets hurt, and/or hits the wall in mystical Bradley / Junior / Everybody fashion -- so the M's powerflush him and move on to the kiddies. No problemo.
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20% DWN: He expands his strike zone... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/10/10
16 Comments
This article gives the league average in passed balls as 11-12 per season per team. Fangraphs has it as about 15-17 per team (see next paragraph).
This article states that there are 4x as many WP's as passed balls. This is corroborated by b-ref.com's team totals, which was 59.7 per team last season.
Fangraphs gives Olivo's PB+WP total as only 13 last season, and only 10 the year before -- both times catching about 70% of his team's games.
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I'm sure I'm missing something here, because Olivo can't have a PB+WP total that is only 30% of league average.
However, it... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/09/10
2 Comments
Q. What's the case against Miguel Olivo?
A. The case against Olivo is the proverbial "I just yakked in my coffee cup ..." humor. For seven colors of the rainbow on this theme, see our homeys at MC.
Yo' GM is so stupid that...
He got fired from the M&M factory for throwing out the W's
He put a quarter in the parking meter at Royal Brougham and lost a day waiting for the gumball
When a Fangraphs editor asked him to "find X," he circled it with a red pen ... on his monitor
He saw a picture of TopCat wearing a dynamite vest, but refused to toss a match
He just ralphed $7M... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/09/10
1 Comments
Q. In what way did his batting improve, in on-field terms?
A. His EYE and CT% stayed the same -- yukky -- while his PX (power index) went way up.
His PX went all the way up to 150 (!), which is the same penthouse at which Jayson Werth and Jack Cust reside.
Look, kiddies. Miguel Olivo is 6'0, 230#, and when he connects, the bat goes "THHOCCKKKK!." Check out this 458-footer (!!) not only for distance, but also enjoy the swing and then take in Miguel's gait as he stomps around the bases.
You're going to have to throw out your past-Mariners image of him, dude. This man is an animal now. He'... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/09/10
5 Comments
Q. Before we get the SSI view of Olivo's defensive value, what's the consensus defensive value? Start with the rocket arm.
A. Here are the SB/CS for the M's in 2010, compared to Olivo's results:
73/29 - Mariners (28% caught stealing; that's about +5.0 net runs for the cheetahs)
45/33 - Olivo (44% caught stealing; that's about -12.0 runs lost for the cheetahs)
Seventeen runs. So what.
So what? You guys want to put Franklin Gutierrez on the MVP ballot 'cause you think he's worth 17 runs more than another AL center fielder.
HERE is a mathematically DEMONSTRABLE +17 runs -- just through... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/09/10
Q. Is Safeco going to wipe Olivo out?
A. It didn't wipe him out before. Dave Niehaus and all the other misguided Dan Wilson loyalists did.
We won't revisit this again, but the Olivo lynching was one of the most shameful things I've ever seen in baseball, up to and including Mike Hargrove benching Roberto Petagine for hitting a home run (yes, really).
Olivo isn't a kid anymore. He's not a young, lost kid caught out after dark, a mile north of his barrio. Olivo is an Entitled Vet and the psychological end of it won't matter this iteration.
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Q. He looks strong enough, give you that. ... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/09/10
40 Comments
Q. OK, he's tough, he brings MLB(TM) game behind the plate and he'll punish some mistakes.
But at 32, is Olivo going to hit the wall as a catcher?
A. Olivo has a ton of partial seasons, notably the ones with the Mariners...
He's got 820 games total: that's five seasons. Wear-and-tear is no issue, end of story, though age-32 bat speed might conceivably be.
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Q. What if Olivo does crash-and-burn as a Mariner?
A. Then he probably gives the Mariners what they project from Moore and Johnson -- a 70 OPS+ catcher not giving them much. At $3M per, there isn't any significant downside here... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 12/08/10
4 Comments
Taken from Cleveland with the No. 2 pick after a very strong year at age 21 with the Lake County Captains.
Youtube here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PU9UtEOP01E
and here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eZ5J4mJ8M20
Copyrighted images here: http://fourseamimages.photoshelter.com/gallery/-/G0000o2v1eGyN_r8/1
Stats here: http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=flores009jos
Pitched in relief only, 28 appearances, and it's only low-A, Midwest League, a good league for pitchers, but still:
2.14 ERA, 7.5 H/9, 0.5 HR/9, 1.5 BB/9, 10.9 K/9
Can't ask for much more than that. 51... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 12/07/10
35 Comments
Baker says Gregg Zaun wants to sign with the Ms, but they've kept him at arm's length while they negotiate with ... Miguel Olivo, at one time the worst fit for Safeco ever. http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/marinersblog/2013620648_mariners_d...
Drayer and Divish also are both taking the notion seriously.http://www.mynorthwest.com/category/mariners_blog_articles/20101207/Quic...http://www.thenewstribune.com/2010/12/08/1456291/no-trades-yet-for-marin...
With the Matsui rumor mostly shot down, the other most likely adds appear to be Jack Cust (competing with Astros, apparently) and the... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 12/07/10
41 Comments
Hideki Matsui -- supposedly Ichiro wants him to be the DH. OPS+ of 124 at 36 for LAAA (24 dbl, 21 HR, 67 BB, 98 K). Angels paid him $6M for that. Career low OPS+ is 108. Bats left.
Eric Chavez -- MVP candidate at 24; hasn't really played since 2006. Will be 33 next year. Had a 7-year run of gold-plated .270/.350/.500 from the left side, then fell off the map with injuries. Who knows what he's got left?
Jack Cust -- already been discussed at great length here, except this time it appears they really are interested in signing him. Classic TTO -- whiff, walk or whallop. Also bats... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 12/07/10
10 Comments
1. Dustin Ackley, 2B
2. Michael Pineda, RHP
3. Nick Franklin, SS/2B
4. Taijuan Walker, RHP
5. Guillermo Pimentel, OF
6. Mauricio Robles, LHP
7. Johermyn Chavez, OF
8. Marcus Littlewood, SS
9. Kyle Seager, INF
10 Dan Cortes, RHP
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/organization-top...
Top three are no shock to anyone here. Taijuan and Pimentel appeal to the toolsy-types (these are the ones who had Halman No. 1 a couple years ago), but, boy, they have a long way to go. But BA projects the 2014 lineup to have Pineda as the #2 starter and Taijuan as the #3 starter. (But... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/03/10
1 Comments
Great photoshop by Positive Paul...
On the Mariners' site, they have a vid of Bedard on July 7th of 2009.
Pitching with the shoulder that had been killing him for at least a couple of months, Erikkk got his first seven outs via strike three.
A picture's worth 1,000 words, so the video will re-stoke our thankfulness of the Bedard lotto draw in the way that no set of alphanumeric symbols could...
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The real idea here, though, is an illustration of the difference between Bedard and Felix. Or, more specifically, what Felix could become.
In the video, Bedard gets his eight... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/03/10
Geoff Baker with money Zduriencik quotes on Erikkk's re-up.
Obviously, there is a chance, a good chance, that Bedard won't come back from injury; that's just stating the obvious.
But we'll make you a deal. SSI is where you'll go to discuss the UP scenario for Bedard. Everyplace else is where you'll go for the DOWN scenario. When you feel angry about Bedard, you've got hangouts for that. When you're in the mood for jellybeans and chipmunks eating out of your hand, you can come here.
How's that fer square.
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[Zduriencik] on Bedard: "It gives us an opportunity, as well as him an... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/03/10
8 Comments
"He's feeling healthy right now. We've got a very good report from two different doctors and Erik says he feels very good. .... He says he feels great right now,'' Zduriencik said. "He's looking forward to being right on time with his starts.''
Zduriencik earlier acknowledged the injury history.
But it's interesting too that the timetable is now --- > with money associated to "now." Love the fact that Erik is willing to show his stuff, in March, in order to lock in his deal.
And it would make no sense to speak in terms of June: it's June already, plus 8 months, when we get to... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/03/10
San-Man with a great post on Dunn's forward projection. He points out several things that I hadn't noticed (deep gasp from crowd ensues).
Likely good investment for two years - but a couple of less-than-ideal years mixed in.
One of the keys when speaking of player profiles and such is that the physical makeup of a player plays a MAJOR role in their longevity. *BIG* guys tend to wear down below the waist - the knees go, (the lower back), hammies, groin pulls, etc.
One of the ugliest parts of trying to comp Dunn is while his bbref comp lists is littered with guys who had strange (... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/03/10
10 Comments
Sandy details out the comp list a bit...
Dunn's comp-list is compromised by the reality that his BA is significantly lower than all the guys on his comp list - but his walks are higher than everyone.
He chooses to take the count deeper. Not a serious point-of-difference IMHO.
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Strawberry's career can't be a good comp, since the ugly ending had little to do with ability or age.
That fact the ChiSox have gotten so many years from Thome after his (age 34 - heh heh) disaster with the Phillies, when he hit .712 in 59 games -- is a likely boon to Dunn.
If I'm the ChiSox GM, I might well be... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 12/03/10
17 Comments
Revisiting.
07: 82 OPS+/ 107 ERA+ 71-91 5th place
08: 83 OPS+/ 102 ERA+ 72-90 4th place
09: 82 OPS+/ 121 ERA+ 88-74 3rd place
10: 95 OPS+/ 121 ERA+ 92-70 1st place, World Series Champs
They could see the pitching coming as soon as 07 -- Lincecum/Cain were a pair of aces and Jonathan Sanchez had potential as a complementary part. It wasn't rocket science to see the 120 ERA+ coming.
So how did the offense evolve?
Here are lists of all the guys who had at least 200 PA and at least 90 OPS+ for each year:
2007
Barry Bonds 169
Randy Winn 104
Ryan Klesko 92
2008
Ray Durham 109
Winn 105... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/02/10
23 Comments
Q. Is 4/$56M the right number?
A. Sure, roughly.
Analysis around the 'net will focus on whether $10 vs $12 vs $12M is "correct," and whether 3 vs 4 years is "correct."
You can't measure microns with yardsticks, and the White Sox do not have a hard salary cap.
You can't calculate X/Y to four places, when Y is indeterminate. The available money changes depending on circumstances. You save $2M, or spend it, and that usually doesn't change your roster in the real world, unless you're Oakland. It changes your cashflow.
And the biggest difference, fans of 500-run teams might have noticed,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/02/10
7 Comments
Fun article at Lookout Landing, which captures the difference between a boring-and-bad team (Mariners 2010, and Mariners 1976-1992) and a boring-and-fun team (Mariners 2011).
Taking the cross from Sully's post and heading it towards the net despite my Andrey Arshavin stature ...
If you're looking for "No Cheering In The Press Box," skip to the next post. :- ) For this one, anyway, we'll scour for hopeful signs.
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Adam Moore. He was wayyyyy overmatched in 2010, as his 8:63 EYE painfully demonstrates.
Moore has a gorgeous catcher's swing, the ability to hit the ball out to RF, and the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/02/10
10 Comments
Michael Pineda is, at LL and everywhere else, now pencilled in as part of the 2011 Safeco shtick.
When LL says "true ace potential" they use the phrase as baseball uses it. Baseball's phrase (not LL's phrase) is a constant peeve of mine. :- )
In the 1970's, when I learned baseball, an "ace" was the guy who started on Opening Day. Every good team had one or two, maybe three. When your 15-18 game winner (in the 1970's now) was scheduled the next day, hey, you had one of your aces going.
Lately we have literally heard GM's say that there are three, or two, or zero, "true aces" in the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/02/10
8 Comments
CS brought up a good point, and we need to split this out:
Very good point about heat and light. But let's talk about the evidence for and against line up protection, because it is just as troubling if a theory is accepted without evidence.
We presume that our pal CS meant, "It's just as troubling if a theory is accepted without (what I consider to be) good evidence"?
;- ) ... else my rant about "No Evidence Exist" was wasted cyberspace...
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=== Evidence Exists, Dept. ===
Like we said, Bill James' book on Win Shares presented a bunch of evidence, evidence that *I* found convincing,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/02/10
Track of the day
Us, and themAnd after all were only ordinary men.Me, and you.... it's not what we would choose to do.Forward he cried from the rearAnd the front rank died.And the general sat and the lines on the mapMoved from side to side
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=== Seen On the Net ===
Us
If weaker bats need those big bats in the lineup, and we don't have the big bats, and we don't GET the big bats, why would 2011 be significantly better?
Them
Sorry, but no. There is no evidence...read this very slowly and a second time for emphasis...*ZERO EVIDENCE*...that there's any such thing as "line-up... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 12/02/10
23 Comments
=== Let Me Count the Ways, Dept. ===
1. When I say "There Is Zero Evidence" that (for instance) the moon landing was faked, I immediately declare my ignorance of the subject.
There is a lot of evidence that the moon landing was faked. That evidence -- which does exist, mind you -- is simply overpowered by the evidence that the moon landing did occur.
A person who claims that "No Evidence Exists" does not yet know the subject well enough to know that his education is less than infinite.
..........
2. If there were zero evidence for anything, and I can't imagine such a situation, how... Read More