January 2011
Posted by jemanji on 01/27/11
13 Comments
An MC denizen points out that an Oakland beat writer published a statement that the Oakland writer had been told, by an A's source,* that the A's are "trying to trade" Kevin Kouzmanoff-plus for Chone Figgins.
It's not on MLBTR yet, but soon will be. Pretty sahl-eeed 'local-scoop' by Weeeee, ain't it Geoffy? ;- ) Great column b'wana.
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=== Kevin Kouzmanoff ===
Is signed for one year, at a bit less than $5M.
Kouzmanoff is an MLB(TM) third baseman who is mediocre-to-lousy at everything offensively, and classy-but-not-spectacular with the glove.
It's amusing to me that, with the bat,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/27/11
10 Comments
=== 2,000 Lbs. of Fire Ants, Dept. ===
If Kevin Kouzmanoff, a RH hitter, moves from Petco to Oakland to Safeco, he will have completed a Thousand Ants trifecta that boggles the mind.
Assuming Petco, Oakland and Safeco to be the three worst parks for Kevin Kouzmanoff to hit in (cut me some slack here, dudes), the odds against Kouzmanoff nailing exactly these parks in three attempts is 24,360 to one.
Hey, at least we don't have to amputate 50 points off the guy's SLG if he moves here. The surgery has already been performed.
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=== Calling Card ===
Here is Tango's wonderful Fan... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/27/11
1 Comments
=== Shedding Chone, Dept. ===
Seems like just a few weeks ago that we all heard Figgins certified as completely untradeable. Music to our ears to hear .... even a rumor .... that Jack might have a taker for Figgins' $9M per.
SSI liked the Chone Figgins signing. But watching him for a year in Safeco, we officially unlike it.
Figgins is one of the most pepper-swinging little clubhouse wreckers Dr. D has seen in all his born days, and in Safeco his SLG is going to stay neatly in (or around) the .200's.
..................
I didn't care for the way Figgins was aging in 2010. It's not a done... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/26/11
=== Exec Sum Dept. ===
So for 20 minutes, chillax into the daydream that you're a $300,000 per year suit, and pretend Dr. D is your temp. Er, your exec consultant. we meant. This daydream will be the ultimate one, we realize. We live to serve.
You bark at Dr. D for whichever was his biggest foulup Wednesday, and direct him to spend his Thursday --- > (1) researching the state-of-the-art on subject X and --- > (2) laying a single piece of paper on your desk by 2:00 p.m., this piece of paper being a 5-minute read that will Exec Sum for you enough about subject X for you to make... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/26/11
4 Comments
BaseballHQ's latest "study" is the most convincing (in either direction) that we have seen. It uses the superior indicator of xERA, and it uses the superior dataset of 20+ years' worth of pitchers.
Dr. D endorses this study wholeheartedly.
Bear in mind that scientists don't use "studies" to resolve and close issues in one attempt. Sometimes good studies conflict. The idea isn't to end the conversation. Just so you know.
..............
Pitchers get hurt. When they do, we want to blame somebody. The little girl's picture was on the milk carton. The jury's not going home without... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/26/11
=== Recommendations ===
Dr. D was fairly well convinced before, and is well convinced now. The Burnout Effects and Pitcher Abuse Points (PAP) and all that stuff, they were pretty good guesses, but they turned out to be bad guesses, Yogi.
Pitchers get hurt, or they do not. Blaming it on workload, or not, does not help our mission, Ah-nold.
The only decent rule-of-thumb that has held up, over time, is Earl's: Don't pitch a guy when he's laboring. If his back foot isn't coming up off the ground as high as it should be, get him off the mound.
How many bench presses is too many for Jay... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 01/26/11
6 Comments
Mariners are giving him a tryout: http://blogs.miaminewtimes.com/riptide/2011/01/yasiel_balaguer_18-year-old_cu.php
Some vid of him mostly talking and working out: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=21Be2du8bvk
A decidedly unenthused Baseball America: http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=10582
And the other view that could be mostly hype: http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/11/14/1926370/cuban-baseball-player-yasiel-balaguer.html
Posted by jemanji on 01/25/11
8 Comments
=== Try, Try Again Dept. ===
Before last season, the Mariners brought in a relief pitcher who matched Chris Ray in the following departments:
Used to save 30 games ...
... only because it's easy to pitch a clean 9th inning with 0 on, 0 out
Had years in which he fanned 9 batters ...
... though with high BB and high HR for a closer
Threw RH
Was a young, 20-something guy who gained and lost the closer job
Suffered arm injury and now solemnly affirms he is alllll the way back
etc etc
This relief pitcher being Chad Cordero, of course.
Dr. D has a real averson to "reclamation" projects on closers... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/25/11
8 Comments
=== Don't Know What This Has To Do With Anything, But Just Thought I'd Mention It ===
Sports-surfin', we ran across a title promising to bring us up to speed on .... "Most Overrated QB's Of All Time."
Sounds interesting, but it got a lot more interesting when we cracked it open and found it stuffed with guys like Johnny Unitas, Bart Starr and Fran Tarkenton ... the card-heroes I used to play Strat-O with.
.............
9th-most OVERrated quarterback who ever lived: Johnny Unitas. :akdru;lizdx87zpdco89drqjfpim;k:
Rudnansky's rationale, thusly:
Johnny Unitas is one of the most celebrated... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/25/11
=== Previously on SSI, Dept. ===
BaseballHQ wanted a set of stats that "correlated well" with actual, physical home-to-first footspeed. In other words, they wanted to be able to tell who the track guys were, and they wanted to use only stats to find that out.
So they took a 400-player list of home-to-1B times (3.9 to 4.5) and put a Bunsen Burner under the stats until they found just the right four stats.
It turned out that Bill James' ancient Speed Score had done just as good a job as HQ's new SPD metric. But Bill's Speed Score relied heavily on stolen bases... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/25/11
10 Comments
=== Year In Review ===
Earlier this week, we offered the SSI shtick on what these new SPD insights meant for current Mariners:
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ICHIRO: SPD score has declined noticeably at age 36, from "Immortal" to "Top 10 in baseball." Remember, 100 is league-average; Ichiro has gone from 200 to 160 to, now, only 130.
Together with some erosion in his EYE and RC/27, and Dr. D's own observations as to Ichiro's physical dropoff, we forecast a lessening of Ichiro's game to "Very Good" ...
UNLESS
Ichiro adapts his game, swings for 10-15 homers, slaps balls through the shortstop hole, etc... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/25/11
3 Comments
Chone Figgins' Statistically Scouted Speed, the last several years, rounded off:
2006 - 150
2007 - 115 (missed 1/3 of season)
2008 - 115 (missed 1/3 of season)
2009 - 135 (New team, big contract)
2010 - 115 (100-loss season)
Figgins has a rep as a guy who will take a day off. No, that's not right; Figgins has a rep as a guy who will take a month off, if he's disgruntled.
My knee-jerk reaction to the above would be --- > if Figgins is happy and in the mood, he hustles, he burns around the bases for beat-out grounders and triples. If he's not jazzed, he's a very ordinary player. I... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/25/11
=== 2 Quarts of Soup off of One Oyster, Dept. ===
Ackley ran a SPD score of 117 in the minor leagues -- 111 in the first half, 120 in the second half. Random SSI noodlings off of the strained pasta-water of this information:
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1. DISCLAIMERS, CAVEATS and QUID PRO QUO's: It's real tough to tell where this SPD score is going off of one year's line.
Lots of guys have 117 in one year .... and 150 in the next. Such as Chone Figgins. Those are speed elites. Speed elites sometimes have 117's in their SPDlines.
Other guys have 117 in one year .... and 99 the next, such as Gabe Gross and Corey... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/22/11
13 Comments
Q. In plain English, what's Gutierrez worth to the Mariners?
A. Here y'go amig-O. These are the three takes on Guti that you will find in SSI chatthreads:
.............
UP - Guti is, in reality, worth +15 or +20 runs gloveside.
At the plate, he's a young hitter who's shown flashes of stardom already. Even in Safeco, he'll find his level as an average-solid right hand hitter who posts an OPS+ of 100-110.
This adds up to a 40-, even 50-runs player ... which is as valuable as Ichiro, Chase Utley, or Jay Bruce ... and Franklin is a $20M player who is... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/22/11
17 Comments
Q. What is Guti worth to some other team?
A. Any team playing in a park friendly to RH hitters? Can cheerfully expect --- > an Adrian Beltre situation.
Adrian Beltre -- a glove-first player with moderate to plus RH power -- moved to a park with a short LF fence, and instantly put up the 5th-highest WAR in all of baseball last year, being worth an incredible 7.1 WAR.
Felix was worth 6.2.
Let me read that again. Do you think that the Red Sox added More Than Felix last year? Why or why not?
Then they let him go!
..................
Bill James his ownself spent many hours analyzing... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/22/11
Q. Do the Gutierrez-Half-Full optimists have ANYthing right?
A. They've got much of it clearly right, and may also have the rest of it opaquely right.
But I doubt it, Charles...
Sez Yahoo 20-team Champ Cool Papa Bell:
Doc, you may very well be right that speed is the most important factor in the outfield, but you are likely overstating its signifigance.
Which is interesting, coming from a guy who himself (IIRC) runs 3.9 to first base.
When a guy whose namesake, and whose own athletic game, starts with speed --- > proposes that speed is overstated for OF defense, you... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/22/11
13 Comments
Q. What difference does it make, this SSI arguing about footspeed vs. jumps? Where's that on Baseball Prospectus?
Would a "serious" blog even argue this?
A. Hey, this is the guts of it, babe. We're tearing the top end off the motor, here. ;- )
As Cool Papa explains ...
[Angles are fine, but it's silly to talk about them as making up the difference between a 10.2 100m and an 11.2 100m ... especially when the 10.2 guy is also a polished ML outfielder. - Dr. D]
A big reason why you put so much emphasis on speed is because you are underrating just how big a difference in... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/22/11
Q. What about the deep ball to the power alley?
A. I can admit that on a quick-reaction ball, Guti's reactions (if they exist) could neutralize his slow footspeed. And yes, Gutierrez is SLOW compared to Austin Jackson. End of story. :- )
............
I can also guarantee you that on a routine deep ball to the power alleys, that Denard Span and Austin Jackson and Cameron Maybin can read the ball.
I played CF and LF, and can assure you that the easiest play in baseball to read, is the high fly ball hit directly between the outfielders, over your head. If you can't read that... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/22/11
Q. Do GM's pick CF's for their gloves or their SB's?
A. This is a fascinating question, and I'm not sure how to answer it ... or whether it even can be answered.
You could ask the GM's, who would certainly respond, "we look at all of it and take the best player." ::shrug::
Cool Papa goes,
Second, the fact that most burners play center doesn't mean that teams are "desperate" to put super fast guys there, but rather it's because it's the only place that makes sense. When I'm deciding where to play people on a softball team, the first thing I think about is who plays shortstop.... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/22/11
8 Comments
Q. How about old guys playing CF? Does this speak to GM's view of speed there?
A. Cool Papa with another fascinating 'put:
Take a look at the speed scores again. While there are a bunch of elite track guys in center, there are also quite a few full timers there who aren't anything special, guys like Jim Edmonds, Vernon Wells, Aaron Rowand and Josh Hamilton (and Gutierrez). Even Torii Hunter isn't real fast. So if there is a really big spread in speed among center fielders, and speed is the most important factor, then there should be a larger spread in instincts/rout-running among CF's.... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/17/11
18 Comments
=== What'd Ichiro Say Bout Switchn', Again?, Dept. ===
We highly recommend skipping this post until the end of your SSI wave-surf. In the mornin's posts other than this one --- > is everything you wanted to know, and were afraid to ax, about speed in baseball.
After you read that, and come back here to this post, you'll extend your SABR and Safeco erudition to a more systemic question: how do major league GM's deploy speed, once they get it?
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To an absolutely amazing degree, the highest SPD scores in baseball are all collected at one position. The seven fastest... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/17/11
Tony's life is changing everyday Every possible way Though our dreams, it’s never quite as it seems Never quite as it seems
Then I open up and see The person fumbling here is me A different way to be
I want more, impossible to ignore Impossible to ignore They’ll come true, impossible not to do Impossible not to do
Talk to me amazing mind So understanding and so blind You’re everything to me
Jack's life is changing everyday Every possible way Though my dreams, it’s never quite as it seems ’cause it's a dream to me Dream to me
Keep dreamin' along with BaseballHQ. Their Forecaster is... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/17/11
=== Hey Lookee Here Dept. ===
As a rule, we're not fans of co-opting great stats. Lot of times, a guy will (1) take a perfectly good stat like EqA, which is already well-understood and well-grasped, --- > (2) put a minor tweak on it "for extra precision", ---- > scale it to (say) OBP rather than AVG, and --- > elbow the old stat out of the way. Look what I invented!
"Happy Birthday to You ...was created for ya... Now we'll try to stay blind ... two stats will be as one... hey child, stay wilder than the wind ..... who do you need, who... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/17/11
=== Statistically Scouted Speed Metric ===
So HQ's new measure took the best baseball events AFTER EXCLUDING SB attempts and successes, like this:
SB attempt rate
3B / (2B+3B)
Runs Scored / Time On Base
R / RBI (actually R - HR / RBI - HR, but you get the point. Bill woulda loved this one)
SB success rate
Hits / Soft & Medium Groundballs
3B per ball in play
Body Mass Index (weight per inch of height; Gutierrez is low, Olivo high)
They had to exclude #1 and #5 because they're trying to predict potential stolen bases by guys who aren't yet stealing them. Despite this, they came up... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/17/11
5 Comments
=== Batting Champ-San ===
You remember how Babe Ruth pointed at the bleachers in the World Series against the Cubbies... okay, you don't. But HQ's called shot for 2010 was --- > Ichiro.
After 2009, Ichiro was moving into his late 30's and his stolen bases had dropped to 26. His SX was down. An easy call. Forget about him as an elite SB threat, right?
SX said fuhgeddaboudit, but SPD still pegged Ichiro as one of the fastest players cruising around ML fields:
2006: 195
2007: 180
2008: 188
2009: 159
It's awesome that SPD reflected the fact that Ichiro actually... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/17/11
Dr. D's eyes are forced to agree that Ichiro, as he moved into his age 35-37 seasons, has lost the lightning-crack immortality that has allowed him to dazzle ... even other major leaguers ... with his physical explosiveness. Hey, even Michael had to adapt at 37.
What next? Well, Scenario A is that Ichiro goes from HOF level to --- > being a "very good" player. Considering defense, baserunning, as well as his leadoff hitting.
But there's a Scenario B. In 2009, Ichiro had already lost some physical explosiveness, but had one of his best seasons, 5.7 runs per game... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/17/11
15 Comments
=== Cranklin Gutierrez ===
SSI has always cried that the emperor wears no clothes here.
M's fan after M's fan raves about Guti's glide paths; Dr. D watches in horror as Guti hits four-bouncers deep into the SS hole and --- > is thrown out by four strides.
As you know, Dr. D considers Guti (roughly) the 5th- or 10th-best center fielder in baseball -- and that is a hiiiigghhh compliment, gentlemen, considering his competition -- but one whose virtues are greatly exaggerated by the steady crosswinds and hang-in-the-air fly balls at Safeco.
'ave at me in the comments. The... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/17/11
5 Comments
=== Justin Smoak ===
My eyes bulged like a Looney Tunes character on this one. We're not talking first-baseman low. We're talking Ryan Howard, Mo Vaughn, Prince Fielder low, and the kid is 23.
Well, okay, not Fielder low: Smoak's at 50, whereas Fielder is at 35 and last season somehow hit an astounding 13. ROTFL! Ah, man... at some point it's almost too embarrassing to allow it to occur... I mean, that 13 SPD is literally cause for me to pass on signing him ....
.................
Back on topic. The mind's eye, watching Smoak, cross-checking that catastrophic SPD score, confirms... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/14/11
8 Comments
Q. Does Pineda's timing lag?
A. SSI puts a lot of credence into the "high elbow" factor that national blogs talk about so much.
But it doesn't put much credence into the claim that one pitcher's timing is "correct" and another's "incorrect." The pundits that I have seen, nationally, don't seem to have a good handle on the subject.
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Q. In a nutshell, what is SSI's opinion on "timing"?
A. Simply that some athletes -- golfers, pitchers, hitters -- "wind the spring tighter" than others, and that this often deceives the observer into thinking that the athlete is "late" to pull the arm... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/14/11
Q. Is it a bad thing to have a high elbow 'at footstrike'? Has this ever been 'studied'?
A. I've never seen any studies on the subject. Check me, if you have.
What we have is common sense and (quite a bit of) anecdotal evidence. "Mark Prior, Joe Shlabotnik and Tuffy Tufferson had high elbows and they got injured," that doesn't help us. It hurts us.
We mean it literally: "Joe, Mark and Tuffy wore their caps sideways and got injured" is worse than no information -- it muddies the water and takes us backwards.
Admittedly, a semi-convincing number of pitchers have been... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/14/11
7 Comments
Q. For instance?
A. Check this slo-mo link. You'll see the elbow bob prior to load. Here, let's see some photo captures from that vid:
This is the opposite of 'short-arming' -- Pineda unbends his elbow (he fully extends his arm to the center fielder). This creates leverage, whippiness, and lowers the amount of muscle force needed.
See DrMikeMarshall.com. Centrifugal force increases as the length of the arc (the distance the ball travels in backstroke) increases.
Pineda is oddly perpendicular to the batter as the ball faces the CF; more about that later.
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Same pitch --... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/14/11
17 Comments
Q. If a pitcher had a higher-stress motion, would that mean he was going to get hurt?
A. No. You put a 350-lb. barbell on my shoulders, at 48, and it would probably injure my back.
You put a 450-lb. barbell on Chris Spencer's shoulders, and that's a higher-stress situation in the absolute ... but Spencer isn't going to get hurt. He's stronger and more resilient than I am.
Merely saying that Tuffy Tufferson has a higher-stress movement doesn't mean that Tuffy will get hurt. We're multiplying two things: [Stress load x Personal resilience]. (And time, reps, comes in as factor... Read More
Posted by bumkus on 01/13/11
I follow the Rockies in addition to the Mariners, and while I generally prefer the quality of the Mariner's blogosphere to the Rockies, there was a fantastic article posted today on one of the Rockies fansites. I hope that we can build this kind of atmosphere in Seattle, but we have had some mixed signals so far in the Jack Z regime.
http://www.purplerow.com/2011/1/13/1932509/thursday-rockpile-the-rocky-m...
Posted by jemanji on 01/11/11
8 Comments
Q. Where'd this come from?
A. I dunno, we saw it someplace and shrugged. Then we saw it about three more places, and boom, we've got an epidemic. "Michael Pineda has to figure out a pitch to deal with lefties!"
NAY VERILY. Michael Pineda has zero problems with left hand hitters. Not minor leaguers yesterday, and not major leaguers tomorrow.
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Q. What are the stats?
A. That's what threw me. I saw some article (don't remember where) that said, hey, Pineda's K:BB is great vs RHB but it "drops to 3:1" against lefties. Not very good for AAA.
I went, WHHAAAAAaaaaaaaaa? "... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/11/11
1 Comments
Q. OK, his stats ring no alarms. How about from a scouting standpoint? Would you expect Pineda to have trouble with lefties, watching him throw?
A. Just the opposite. Pineda's main two pitches, the fastball and power curve, are just what you'd ask for if you were a RHP wanting to knock down lefties. Both in shape and in presentation :- )
Felix, when he came up, had a lot of armside run on his heater -- tailing away from lefties and therefore into the barrels of their bats.
Pineda, by contrast, throws an uncommonly straight Dennis Eckersley / Curt Schilling fastball. This... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/11/11
5 Comments
Q. In January, where is SSI on Pineda's injury risk?
A. Funny thing: we just read a coupla more studies on that, once again debunking "IP increase from Y1 to Y2" theory. We gotta post that pretty quick here.
Deltas on IP, Y1 to Y2, became a fad for a while -- and that began at BaseballHQ.com. HQ has recanted, based on facts and figures. I concur.
Like Earl always said, it isn't innings that injure a pitcher. It's throwing after his mechanics have come apart via fatigue.
But we'll document that in a few days, hopefully. ... It's fine to play Guess Along With Dr. D on the mechanics,... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 01/10/11
10 Comments
As nicely summarized by Jay Yenich:
1) Michael Pineda, RHP, Grade A2) Dustin Ackley, 2B, Grade A-: Borderline B+3) Nick Franklin, SS, Grade B: Borderline B+4) Taijuan Walker, RHP, Grade B-5) Mauricio Robles, LHP, Grade B-6) Alex Liddi, 3B, Grade B-7) Guillermo Pimentel, OF, Grade C+8) Johermyn Chavez, OF, Grade C+9) Kyle Seager, 2B, Grade C+10) James Jones, OF, Grade C+11) Dan Cortes, RHP, Grade C+12) Marcus Littlewood, SS, Grade C+13) Ramon Morla, 3B, Grade C+14) Nate Tenbrink, 3B-OF, Grade C+15) Ji-Man Choi, C-1B, Grade C+16) Blake Beavan, RHP, Grade C+17) Vince Catricala, 1B, Grade C+... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/10/11
Hey amigos...
Our gallant admins are managing a spam attack as we speak... as part of this, they had to put a hold on comments for a while. This hold is currently "off" but could possibly be turned on again at various times today... if you don't see a post, no worries, it's still in the DB and will appear shortly...
Thanks for the patience. As y'know, you put up with much worse at D-O-V :- )
Go Hawks,
Jeff
Posted by jemanji on 01/10/11
1 Comments
Moe: Any chance they would swap Silva for, say, Milton Bradley? :evil grin:
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That's another one like Grizzly pointed out: if you kept the guy here, he was going to be awful... so you might as well deal him, and not look back...
But. Every Olivo, Guillen, Silva, Choo, Meche, Thornton and Morrow is a thunderous accusation against the Mariners org... not my accusation, but the stats' accusations ...
These are not guys who just happened to be part of the cost of doing business ... In general, most are players who were visibly oppressed (or at least not helped) by the context here...... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/08/11
10 Comments
As the years go on, this game will gain weight and resonance.
The 2010 Saints-Seahawks playoff game was comparable to the 1995 Mariners-Yankees series, complete with a historically-great play being the very play to seal an 'impossible' victory against a champion.
True, the 1995 Mariners had the backdrop of baseball being saved in Seattle. Except for that, this game might have equalled the 1995 ALDS every inch.
Every once in a long while, sports transcend. This is a game to bask in, all the way up to kickoff of the next game.
........................
The percentages below -- like... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/08/11
=== Stream of Consciousness ===
1. Would love to see some amigos throw a talking-point-per-post into the hat. Probably be back atcha Monday.
........
2. My daughter Jenny - just out of high school - attended her first NFL game. She said it might have been the most fun day of her life.
She yelled as loud as anybody in the stadium.
In the week leading up ... gloating about Qwest... I kidded her that she'd be texting her brother - in the seat next to her. She scoffed. But -- during the game she said that on several plays she couldn't hear herself yell.
I had hearing loss after... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/08/11
2 Comments
9. Football is nothing like baseball, nowhere near as predictable. Baseball (BABIP, K/BB, S% etc) is driven by Pascal's Triangle. In baseball, probability theory crushes all attempts to defy gravity.
However, there is no Pascal's Triangle involved in a Matt Hasselbeck throw to Mike Williams. A team can suddenly play a lot better than it has been playing. You can't try to saber the NFL the way you do the AL and NL.
Of course, there are many basic principles that are extracted by a site like advancednflstats.com, and this kind of research has been gone since at least the days of Landry... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/06/11
19 Comments
MtGrizzly, who understands business management more than anybody I've seen in the blog-o-sphere, sez (regarding Zduriencik's handing decisions to his field manager)
It happens a lot. And it's something they don't teach you in business school.
If an exec's butt is on the line over a given product development or department's performance, he will almost certainly micro-manage it. He will have to have a malleable product manager or department head in place. A strong, independent type will just create too much conflict. I've been through it myself as a :ahem: very Type-A, independent manager... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/05/11
3 Comments
=== Bargain Bin HQ'ers, Dept. ===
Hadn't got a chance yet to give the good news on Cust. From HQ's perspective, that is. Having served up gritty Yang on local sportswriters, immigration boards and puppet field managers, how about some sweet Yin on a Mariners player who will be a lot of fun to watch next year...
Story goes about the two guys on the shooting range who were preparing for that Saturday's competition. "Boy, I hear Dave just spent $2,000 on a HK .45 longslide," one guy worried.
"Dave don't bother me none," his friend replied. "I hear Bill just spent $2,000 on primers. For... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/05/11
3 Comments
Lonnie has published one of the really compelling interviews of the entire year.
Lonnie had, remarkably, intuited from Baker's demeanor that Baker was under pressure. To me, this is excellent perceptiveness from Lonnie, because even the "irritable Baker" was much more accessible, friendly, engaging, positive, and ... um ... non-condescending than many others in his field.
Just for example, Baker appeared on SSI and coolly, point-by-point defended his reporting on Josh Lueke, both listening and speaking like an adult. How many other beat writers would deign to such a thing... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/05/11
13 Comments
2. There was a time, 1970's maybe early '80's, when Steve Rudman and Art Thiel would simply write up the truth and publish it in the local newspapers the next day. I thought that was cool, even then. But most of the time, the readers don't give much -- or any! -- credit for the risk and sacrifice that is incurred.
Just for starters, you don't get to be Ken Griffey Jr's pal when you're more worried about your readers than the people you're covering.
The primary motivation isn't "getting a reputation" so a writer can be promoted. Uncomfortable writing tends to cost a guy like Baker... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/05/11
7 Comments
=== Baker on Wedge ===
OK, so first hip-slam off of Lonnie's and Geoffy's riffs ... :- )
9 - What are Eric Wedge's strongest skills as a manager?
Wedge's strongest skill is his ability to say yes to the people running the show and take blame for things that aren't always his fault. I'm not writing this as a joke.
If you're going to work with some of the newer, stats-driven front offices in baseball, you have to be able to go with the resistance. These front offices tend to treat managers like puppets and then point fingers at the dugout when their best-laid plans go astray. ...And... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/02/11
The champs will be heavy favorites, of course. But I don't know that I would give up on the game before it starts - that's all we're sayin'. The Seahawks have enough of a chance, that it's worth stoking up for the game. Or so it says here.
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=== The Stud Card ===
Tony Dungy, speaking from a coach's perspective, complained about how hard it would be for New Orleans to prepare for two different quarterbacks.
It's not so often that a team is in genuine doubt about which QB will start, and especially not so often that two QB's play so differently. Whitehurst's emergence is very... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/02/11
2 Comments
=== 12 Men On Defense ===
Dungy noted that the Seahawks held the Rams to 6 points -- and no touchdowns, despite a turnover on the Seahawks' 20-yard-line.
Dungy attributed this directly to the Qwest enviornment. "Don't underestimate how hard it is to play there," he said, and this is coming from a guy who had Peyton Manning in tow, to deal with those problems.
The Seahawks' defensive players are the ones who know how to synch up with the crowd. "Mostly we were in our base defense," Carroll said after the game.
In a friendly environment, talented players seem to sense hesitation... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/02/11
=== But Which Side's the Baddie, Dept. ===
We watched Carroll after the game, and Silvi (via an e-mail) put the question directly. Who starts next week?
Carroll politely sidestepped the question, which stunned me. I'd been expecting him to say "Matt's our guy. If he's healthy, we go with him." Or, at least some kind of misdirection to keep New Orleans guessing for a few days.
But Carroll forthrightly went into a discussion of technical considerations that was driving his in-game decision as to whether to use Whitehurst or Hasselbeck to win this game. I was left with the distinct... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/02/11
Q. If Dr. D is making the call, who starts?
A. Whitehurst, only because the Hawks' offensive line is getting smashed on a snaply basis.
If the Seahawks had any pass protection, -OR- any running game at all (they finished #32, I think), -OR- if Matt Hasselbeck was mobile, then I would definitely give Hasselbeck the ball.
But all three of those things return -FALSE- on the register, so Whitehurst has to play a semi-collegiate game behind the line of scrimmage.
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Q. Can Whitehurst perform like this again?
A. I've been in a running argument with my son all year, him ferociously against... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/02/11
Q. Would SSI favor a rule that said that an NFL team had to have 9 wins to enter the playoffs?
A. About as much as it would favor a rule that said a blog had to have good content, in order to publish ....
There have been, what, 357 playoff teams in the NFL. There have been 2 or 3 teams make it in with 8-8 records and, now, one at 7-9.
The existing rules --- > already keep these super-longshot teams down to a minimum. Their rarity creates, for me, a delicious intrigue when they do occur.
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Q. How about the home-field thing?
A. You got me there. I couldn't believe it when I realized... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/02/11
4 Comments
Q. Should we be sheepish about attending the postseason tourney? Think about the jeering we'll take from other cities' fans. Bah humbug.
A. The Seahawks have the worst playoff team that has entered the NFL postseason -- to date. Their points differential is easily the worst ever, for playoff teams.
But "worst playoff entry" stands in contradistinction to, say, "worst NFL team ever" or even "worst Seahawk team ever" ... and in stark contrast to "2010 Mariners."
How would you have felt about the 2010 Mariners being "the worst American League playoff team ever"? I'd have been okay with... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/01/11
6 Comments
Spec sez,
I'm one of the Robles-as-SP skeptics...
I freely admit I don't have as much to go on, but I've been watching his linescores and it's just fact -- he never gets past 6 IP. 2007 Rookie: 4.9 IP/start in 14 GS 2008: used in relief several times, so can't figure 2009 Midwest League: 5.1 IP/start in 11 GS 2009 FL St League: 5.0 IP/start in 7 GS 2010 Southern League: 5.18 IP/start in 22 GS 2010 PCL: 5.6 IP/start in 5 GS Also, not conclusive of anything, but he's been used in short relief roles in Venezuela the last two winters.
I'm a fan in every other way, but that's why I haven'... Read More
Posted by smb1520 on 01/01/11
2 Comments
What can you tell me about Blake Beavan??
Any ideas on when he will be making a debut?
Basically any ideas or info you have on this guy and the impact he will have this year...
Thanks!
Posted by jemanji on 01/01/11
=== Coin of the Realm, Dept. ===
The 101-loss Mariners threw the 2nd-most fastballs among 30 ML teams in 2010. Actually, both the Mariners and the Braves threw 63.6% fastballs, but the Braves won on goal differential.
This despite the fact that the Mariners and Indians struck out vastly fewer batters than the other 28 ML teams. You're talking about Charlie Brown trying to pitch like Kevin Brown.
And that tragic strikeout rate was despite (1) 250 innings from Felix and (2) 103 innings from Cliff Lee! What did everybody else do?!
................
We are definitely sympathetic to the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/01/11
19 Comments
... Two SP's did refuse to lose, er, to throw a Mariner-rich mix of fastballs, that is: Jason Vargas (59%) and David Pauley (59%). Their ERA's were 3.78 and 4.07, respectively.
If you don't give up scorched GB's and LD's in Safeco, you're going to be all right. Change speeds and let the park protect you.
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Admittedly, RRS and Garrett Olson also mixed their pitches reasonably well. ... RRS' noodle is so worn out these days that it wouldn'ta mattered much what he tried. He tried to trick them as long as he could, but it didn't work out.
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=== Chone Figgins -12.6 defensive runs ===
One... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 01/01/11
7 Comments
Again and again San-Man throws out topics that demand serious replies... keep up da good work, b'wana...
Can BABIP be a skill?
I said *BEFORE* the 2010 season that the problem with Fister was his H/9. In AAA, when he was actually posting the numbers that GOT him his MLB job - that his Hits/9 were 1.5 HIGHER than *EVERY OTHER SP* at Tacoma.
I think you're absolutely right - Fister has a "skill" that allows him to run 100 ISO's routinely. He has a skill that allows him to walk only 2 guys a game.
BUT ... the *price* for those skills is in "perpetually" running .350 BABIPs.
Most... Read More