May 2011
Posted by jemanji on 05/31/11
8 Comments
PROPS TO ERIK BEDARD'S TWO-PITCH GAME.
The next time you see a pitcher's game chart show this much white space in the middle 8-12 mph, give a holler...
Much to Dr. D's glee, Erik has almost completely dispensed with his changeup -- only 3 recorded by F/X on Tuesday. He doesn't need his changeup, because his other 5 pitches are too much already.
In 10 pitches on Tuesday, the hitters would see:
2 jam pitch fastballs
2 painted outside-black fastballs
1 heavy sinking FB at the knees
1 ladder fastball
3 Nintendo change-curves
1 of something else ... maybe a pitch that missed a bit, maybe not
(... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/31/11
8 Comments
Since You Axed, Dept. :- )
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Q. What's the coefficient of confidence in Mr. League, going forward?
A. Not real high. He's still a head case with a great arm and a lifetime 3.98 ERA ... 4.88 this year.
The closer and in fact the whole bullpen is makeshift ... but then again, there is no team in baseball with less pressure on its pen. So the M's have some time to replace all the bondo with some welded steel.
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Q. Supposing that I just want to enjoy League's 35-of-42 saves or whatever he's going to do this year... would the Mainframe hassle me about it?
A. Sure, knock... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/31/11
10 Comments
Felix Hernandez and Michael Pineda not only entertain Mariners fans, they also bring us peace of mind because their success can be easily understood. Despite Doug Fister’s and Jason Vargas’s demonstrated value over the last year and a half, I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop since their success defies easy explanation.
I have nothing to say about Jason Vargas at present, though remembering how Jamie Moyer defied gravity for a decade does calm the nerves when thinking about Jason. Instead I think I have come across a Doug Fister statistical anomaly that I think explains why he... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/31/11
11 Comments
Geoff Baker's fix for the Dustin Ackley situation is elegant, effective, and laced with quotes from the shot-caller's office. He would have:
Ackley at 2B
Kennedy as McLemore-type super sub (1-2 days at 2b, 1 day at DH, 1B, and 3B)
Carp in LF first, maybe Halman later, possible deadline trade
Baker called Zduriencik like 2 seconds before he published the article. News you can't get anywhere else, man.
According to Geoffy -- it's not always absolutely clear how much is being interpreted, but the basic source is sound -- Zduriencik's positions on the LF situation are these:
Kennedy is a LF... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/30/11
9 Comments
PROPS TO FRIDAY the 13TH:
On Friday the 13th, the Cleveland Indians refuted Brandon League's pitch selection by splashing three XBH's the other way off his outside FB's.
The walkoff 5-4 loss dropped the M's back to their low-water mark, 16-and-23. They were then rained out for two days, in case they hadn't noticed what had happened. Seattle blogs had. Go check the archives 'round the 'sphere that weekend :- )
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The M's responded by getting off the canvas and goin' to the body like nobody ya ever seen.
Fortunately for you, Michael Pineda was in the American League, not in AAA, and he... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/30/11
15 Comments
SLOPS TO MICHAEL SAUNDERS' LINE DRIVE DOWN THE RF LINE:
Dr. D has nothing against pull hitters. Juan Gonzalez pulled everything.
But this is totally ridiculous. Ted Williams' first rule for a struggling hitter is to take the ball up the middle. I don't even know if Michael Saunders can line a ball up the middle.
He's got to catch the ball so flush on the clubhead, in such a tiny little window, that it's impossible. ::Scotty:: I kinna change the lawz a physics, Keptin! I've got! to have! a contact window!
Saunders, Figgins, and Peguero at the bottom, that's nine full AB's flushed... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/30/11
2 Comments
With a golfclap to Doug Miller. Fist of Fury Punches Out O's, that'll do for us too.
By the way: have you ever counted the similarities between Ichiro and Bruce Lee? Power per bodyweight, pioneering in their mechanics, intensity, fitness, speed, no-talk just-fight, impassive assassin attitude, legendary status, etc etc. Ichiro is what Lee would have been, if Lee had been a baseball player.
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Q. May 30, 2011: nine K's. What was happening out there?
A. Fister threw fastballs #1-4 at a velocity of 92-93, threw fastball #5 at a velocity of 94 mph, and his jaw dropped wider than anybody'... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/30/11
9 Comments
Q. Is there any chance that Fister could raise his velo to 90-94 on a consistent basis? :::DROOOOLLL:::
A. Tell you one weird thing: Prior to Monday's velo jump, Fister had just been left out for 113 pitches and a Blown Quality Start (BQS) last time around. Here, let's chart it:
113 pitches, BQS - last start
110 pitches, 8.0 innings - the start before, the 2-1 win over the rodent Angels
107 pitches, 8.0 innings - the start before that, the 4-hitter over Cleveland that League blew
So Hargrove had run Fister out there an extra inning three times in a row -- and then Fister came out... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/28/11
9 Comments
=== Pennant-Race Crossroads Dept. ===
Daniel-san / David / Jamey step up on stage for the fate of their and Capt Jack's eternities
Steinbrenner Minion: Well, well, well. Who sent YOU heah!
Daniel-san: ...
Daniel-san: Terrified. Lower lip quivers. But will not break eye contact.
Steinbrenner Minion: Can' talk little man? Bet can't play none, either!
Daniel-san: ...
Daniel-san: Snaps amp jack into his all-go, no-show Stratocaster. Positions left hand on fretboard.
Steinbrenner Minion: ....
Steinbrenner Minion: Uh-HUH.
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Unfortunately for you, rather than Steve Vai vs. Ry... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/27/11
2 Comments
The M's will be playing for first place on Saturday. When the M's were -7 under, did you ever think you'd see that sentence this year?
Texas - playing KC in a #5 SP vs #5 SP matchup
LAA - Jered Weaver vs a resurgent Francisco Liriano who or what is an Anthony Swarzak?
Sea - KING FELIX YEAHHHHHHH BABY
KEY 1: Michael Pineda's poise...
In his 10th start, Pineda finally had a "B game" -- check that, "C game" -- in which he did not execute his pitches.
His tempo was MUCH slower, his shoulders looked tight, and he was steering the ball IMHO. Too amp'ed up? Could easily have been.
No "coming... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/27/11
15 Comments
Q. Are the M's in a position to drop Figgins out of the #2 yet?
A. Very surprised to see that Figgins debates are already heating up around the 'net.
I hadn't guessed that people would be suggesting the Nuclear Option on Figgins. That's not a viable option, though SSI wishes it were.
SSI's main $0.02 at this point is that the real-life problem is much more political than it is sabermetric. (And if it were sabermetric, it wouldn't have such a clear solution that we needed to re-ignite the sneerfests in the M's blog-o-sphere. We were just now getting past those.)
Figgins is owed a lot... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/27/11
KEY 5: Ichiro against jam pitches.
This article is one of Jeff Sullivan's best, and that's sayin' a whale of a lot. In it, he demonstrates that the 2011 Ichiro is having more problems with jam pitches than usual.
Ichiro, relative to other major leaguers, has a super long, super complex swing. He is using a 1-wood up there -- no, actually, a trick extended-length driver.
His natural 1-wood swing (as opposed to the cut-down, slap-the-ball-through-SS/3B swing) has always had a natural hole on his hands.
..........
Of course, Ichiro has been countering this for 15 years.
Normally, Ichiro... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/27/11
8 Comments
Keys to the game Dept.
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KEY 1: Michael Pineda's poise.
"Psychologically, you must be very confident - and this confidence must be based on fact." - Bobby Fischer.
If Pineda blows away the Yankees, it will be his "coming out" game on ESPN. I'm looking forward to it.
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KEY 2: The extra rest day for the Juggernaut rotation.
No sooner did we write it up that Felix was on pace for 39 starts ... than did Felix out there flatter than Chone Figgins' swing, have a terrible game, and then a lukewarm one the game after. We wondered at the time whether Felix' workload was becoming a bit too... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/27/11
14 Comments
Q. Can a baseball offense be too patient?
A. It can, yes. If a hitter goes up to the plate, the bat glued to his shoulder, hoping for a walk, he's quickly going to be out of the majors.
Michael Saunders was a case in point -- in April he had 0-2 counts in 40% of his AB's, or something.
My man Earl wrote about this: patience is seeking your pitch, not letting three pitches go by to start an AB. He scoffed at hitters who "go up there with the bats glued to their shoulders."
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Q. Was the Mariners' April offense too patient?
A. It looks to me like it was.
Throughout April, SSI kept a "... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 05/26/11
9 Comments
Just messing around with some numbers.
I like to look at extra-base hits + walks. It's just sort of turning OPS into a counting stat, and sort of takes the philosophy of "singles are easy" or, at least, more random than extra-base hits. And a walk is a 100% chance of getting first, as opposed to the 30% chance you get from putting the ball in play.
Anyway, it's a pretty good screen for who is likely to produce offensive results that affect the scoreboard. The top 10 in the organization shouldn't really surprise anyone:
Player
XBH
BB
Total
Dustin Ackley
18
35
53
Danny Carroll
18
29
47... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/25/11
1 Comments
Q. What have the POTD's said about Pauley up to this point?
A. That he's a fringe major league pitcher -- emphasis on the "major league" part of that.
As the M's experimented with Ian Snell, Ryan Rowland-Smith, Garrett Olson, and others, we nagged that the M's were wasting time on pitchers who had no chance in the big leagues long-term. (Jason Vargas was another pitcher we cyber-flushed in grave error; it's not like we fly with a perfect operational record!)
Point is, it's not like SSI signs off easily on fringe pitchers. Takes a lot for us to buy in to a guy like Pauley.
But Pauley did... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/25/11
6 Comments
=== 1984 to 2084, Dept. ===
In 1984, the first Macintosh computer came out. It came in gorgeous 21st-century packaging, offered dazzling 1984 features, and most of that year I used it for word processing and a little 2D scroller dungeon game.
It had 128K RAM, a 32-bit processor, and cost $2,950, which Cindy enthusiastically recommended we fork over. It had no hard disk - a 5MB external was $2,000. That, I skipped.
My engineer father-in-law, and programmer brother-in-law, both scoffed. They assured me that command prompts offered the more efficient way for human beings to work, not... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/24/11
34 Comments
G-Money sez,
6 IP, 12K for Mister Paxton tonight - all swinging. 5 ground outs to one fly out. On the year in A-ball:
1st outing: 5 IP, 4 hits, 4BB/6K
2nd outing: 5 IP, 5 hits, 4BB/3K
3rd: 6 IP, 6 hits, 4BB/10K
4th: 5.1 IP, 3 hits, 3BB/7K
5th: 6 IP, 3 hits, 2BB/12K
I agree with Spec - promotion definitely coming. Probably up to AA, skip the Cal League entirely once he feels stretched out, in command of his pitches, and comfortable.
So, like...now. ;)
~G
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=== Call 'Im Up, Dept. ===
Definitely Paxton has showed the star-class stuff that the SSI crowd expected out of the box. Early on,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/24/11
5 Comments
SLOPS TO DOUG FISTER'S LUCK TONIGHT.
Play this game ten times, with the same pitches and swings, and the M's win about 6 or 7 of them. Tonight was one of the 3 or 4.
........
Wedge was asked in the postgame, what was wrong with Fister ... (you know how it is. If the other team won, you messed up, didn't you?)
Wedge came right back at them: No. Fister threw the ball very well. He ran into some bad luck. There was the ball off Peguero's glove, there was a game-deciding balk call from the 1B ump that should have been the 3B ump's call, there was a squeeze play, and other things.
"Fister... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/24/11
1 Comments
Just quickly ...
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PROPS TO BRENDAN RYAN. Three more hits, an 80 OPS+, and now he's looking like a team captain.
Valle remarked that a guy with so much energy, backing up plays he doesn't have to and all that, is contagious.
Bill James remarked that Johnnie Evers (Tinker to Evers to Chance) was so high-voltage that wristwatches stopped when he wore them. Ryan reminds me of Evers.
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SLOPS TO THE 1-2 HITTERS. The TV said they were 6-for-44 on the trip, or something. Talk about a ballclub running with its shoelaces tied together. The 1-2 hitters bat the most often, didn't I hear... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/23/11
Impromptu role reversal Dept.
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One more win, and we're back to the Big Three. I like baseball. It makes me happy.
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For some reason it got to 4-1 and I couldn't enjoy the game - well, couldn't enjoy it as much as I could the wins over the rodent Angels.
Wasthinking about the big Killebrew crowd, and the M's machine-like execution of the hapless hometown nine. I honestly don't think I'd enjoy being a T-101 Terminator.
Fortunately for the crowd, they had a great night. A non-catcher was calling Jason Vargas' game, so the Twins got back in it. You ever think about the fact that... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/23/11
6 Comments
=== Carlos Peguero ===
Ripped two hot-shot base hits that evaded fielders by only a yard or two. A single to the SS's right, and the big game-tying RBI to the second baseman's right.
You know, when Richie Sexson came up as a rookie, there was a lot made about the fact that it was hard to get him out on a ground ball. His one-hoppers whistled through the infield with topspin, and infielders' range was cut in half, it seemed like...
Peguero hits the ball so blinkin' hard that the infielders get two, even one, step. Not four steps. The middle infielders are playing Hot Corner Step And Dive... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/23/11
5 Comments
Vargas and Gimenez threw few changeups and sliders on Monday.
Vargas was getting his only swinging strikes on the change, but Gimenez called only 38% [changes and cutter/sliders combined] .... compared to Vargas / Olivo's usual 60-70%. And Vargas got tattoo'ed, ending the M's lockdown streak.
Vargas' success has been based on his third pitch, a nasty little cutter, and a 40-30-30 type pitch mix, as you can see here.
Dr. Mike Marshall emphasizes that his Grand Strategy works only when the three pitches are randomized -- fastballs have to be well under 50%. (Put down the whipped cream... Read More
Posted by Loopster on 05/23/11
4 Comments
Something has been happening to Miguel Olivo the hitter over the last few years. I'd been watching him this season and thinking, "I don't remember him walking so much." And sure enough, the man has been progressing as a hitter. The eye is getting better. You CAN teach an old dog new tricks:
Year % BB
2008 2.2
2009 4.6
2010 6.3
2011 9.1
The WARs have increased since 2008 as well, from 1.1 to 2.0 to 3.2 last season.
The progression is steady. That 9.1 mark for this season is very intriguing, and I think it points to good things going forward. His slugging has taken a... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/22/11
37 Comments
=== CrossTrainer Dept. ===
In poker, an amateur bets into a pot and then a pro might watch to see .... what % of the time the bettor stares at his opponents, vs. keeping his gaze "soft" and down.
If his gaze is soft and away 70% of the time, the bettor's drawing him in, not wanting to scare the caller away from the big hand...
It's not genius. It's just something the card player is used to looking for.
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In basketball, the ball goes into the low post and the coach checks to see where the defender's feet are. Has he covered the drop step?
Checking the defender's feet isn't genius. It's... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/22/11
=== Twinkies Circle the Wagons ===
My man Geoffy, who is definitely the best baseball writer I've seen in Seattle, a bit dourly warned his readers that the M's were going to stomp the Padres and Twins.
Y'know, with an air like, don't read too much into it. It's the Padres and Twins.
Thought for the day. When you start to realize, before the games start, that you are about to stomp a bad team ... that means you are a good team.
:- )
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=== Peguero Runs Rampant, M's Score Six ===
Here's a phrase you hear a lot around the 'net: "It was the best information we had at the time." Normally this... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/22/11
3 Comments
The five dreadnaught units process their latest download, "sell your turrets when you get to the Rockies - the U.S. West is unwinnable" -- and turn their fire on the Mothership
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=== Sorry, Son, Had to Put 'Im Down ===
Not often that my reaction to a sports game is empathy for my victim's suffering. Nobody forced him to be there.
But at times like Sunday's, to avoid getting caught up in the enemy's anguish, to maintain the ol' killer instinct, we have to remember a piece of advice from Jack Nicklaus: "When your opponent quits, pile on the gap as much as you can. Sympathize after the game... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/21/11
30 Comments
The Juggernaut with a 2.30 ERA the last 31 days...
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Q. Great game by Pineda, eh?
A. Terrible game by Pineda - by far the worst I've seen him throw.
Well, in terms of life in his arm,. He was 91-96 mph, had several innings of alarming velo, and was down a good -2.0 mph.
Here is his velocity graph. He was 91-93 for quite a while, and did push it up into the 94-96 band for two innings, before falling back down to 91-93 .... and finally reaching back in the last inning for 95 again.
That's not Michael Pineda. He was laboring.
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Q. Whyfor?
A. During the game, it looked to me like he was... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/21/11
12 Comments
Cool Papa:
Completely off topic, but what is your take on pitchers using long-toss (throwing the ball in an arc 200 to 300 feet) as a major part of their workout regime? Apparently it's very controversial, with a lot of people swearing by it while a bunch of major league teams ban it.
Trained my son that way.
From an aiki standpoint, the body naturally finds its path of least resistance with long toss. In any sports movement, it's super important to find that which is light, easy, fluid, and joyful. In baseball, that's long toss.
In aikido, students are trying to learn shiho nage and... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/21/11
14 Comments
Heading into 2011, the Mariners had one six showing in their rotation. They left that one down.
They tossed four dice in the cup, clamped a palm over, rattled the dice, and threw them on the table. The result is pictured, to the left.
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=== Now THAT'S Stars & Scrubs ===
Fangraphs' dollar value for pitchers is based off FIP, a theoretical stat meant to predict the future. WAR and VALUE are not measuring actual runs gained and lost. So the below chart is probably understating the situation.
Still, pro-rated, here is what the M's five best players have earned in 2011, if you assume... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/21/11
15 Comments
=== Cutters and Sliders ===
A normal fastball fades armside about six inches. A "cut" fastball is a very hard little slider that breaks the other way, gloveside, from 0-4 inches ... a very important 8 inches' delta off the regular fastball.
91 mph, 6" armside run - normal ML fastball
82 mph, 1" gloveside run - normal ML slider/cutter
-9 mph difference = easily-distinguishable pitches
I found nine pitchers in baseball who can throw their cutters within 2-3 mph of their fastballs. This essentially gives these pitchers two identical-looking pitches -- which break in opposite directions just as... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/20/11
9 Comments
jug*ger*naut 1. a huge, overwhelming, inexorable force that crushes whatever is in its path without need for threat assessment or defensive protocol 2. any American League rotation comprised of five Opening Day starters
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Q. Any prereq's to Bedard 301?
A. Here are three quick reads, that we hope you'll find useful in zero'ing Bedard's position up off the ridge there:
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Bedard vs. Cleveland Technical Diagnosis (April 10) - the consensus was that Bedard was done, in part because he'd lost velocity.
The SSI report was that Bedard's stuff was 98-100% as good as ever. We've learned to... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/20/11
jug*ger*naut a huge, overwhelming, inexorable force that crushes whatever is in its path without need for threat assessment or defensive protocol
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Q. Lot of called strike threes on Friday.
A. Dave Sims and Dave Valle were marvelling at the "strike threes looking" ... Valle, the ex-catcher, emphasized the dominance this implied.
Look at it this way. The pro's, notably Eric Wedge, judge a pitcher by how good the swings are against the pitcher -- how much load the hitters get. So how weak a swing are they getting, if they can't swing?
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Bedard's K ratio has always run ahead of... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 05/20/11
41 Comments
Oh ya, youbetcha.
Dependent upon, only, (1) making room in the budget for the incoming player -- which, in turn, means (A) moving Jack Wilson's (or . . . Chone Figgins'?) salary, or (B) getting the top brass to commit to "Believe Big," or both; and (2) figuring out who is actually in charge of the Dodgers.
Well, (2) and (1)(B) come into play if your target-of-choice is Andre Ethier (which mine is), who makes $9.25M and whose current employer is slogging through a swampland of divorce/litigation/bankruptcy/MLB takeover/nuclear meltdown (etc. etc. etc.).
But don't forget (1)(A) -- the rest of... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/19/11
25 Comments
Q. Was the Unit-Moyer-Fassero rotation better?
A. The 1997 ballclub had really terrible pitchers in the #4-5 slots, like 6.00 ERA guys. That 1997 Mariner team may have had the skinniest, tallest talent pyramid in baseball since WWII. Right now, the 2011 rotation is better than the 1997 rotation.
And are you even going to take Johnson and Moyer over Pineda and Felix, necessarily? See what I'm saying?
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The 2001 rotation had five good pitchers -- two moderate stars and three average-good SP's. They led the league in ERA, too. But a lot of that was the 10K bullpen.
You going to trade... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/19/11
1 Comments
Q. Wedge played Kennedy and LRod for the third time in four days!
A. I'm probably being stubborn to give our DP duo credit, when they went 1-7 off Haren, but ... in fact the M's did get two precious runs, one of which was LRod's.
Luis led off the 5th by pounding a double into the corner. Peguero then bounced a grounder to the right side, and Gimenez lifted a fly ball to CF, tying the game. Our shortstop created the tying run today.
That's three games for the DP combo, and three wins, if I'm not mistaken. Baker, Weaver, and Haren.
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Q. Wedge has the go-ahead from Zduriencik to sit Jack... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/19/11
Q. Another lockdown by Fister. A step forward for him?
A. A step backward, kind of.
Fister reverted to his 2010 game in one sense: he threw 70% plus fastballs, had ineffective offspeed stuff, and relied on command all day.
He threw 81 of 108 pitches at 86-92 mph. That isn't going to get strikeouts. He had only 2 strikeouts, only 4 swings and misses. That's Fister 2010.
Fastballs first time through, mix in a very occasional offspeed pitch in trips 2 and 3? You're not going to see that more classically demonstrated than this:
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Q. That doesn't mean that he's abandoning the curve and... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/18/11
6 Comments
Never fear, dear reader, we lack only 4.5 games before the world will rue the day they doubted us....
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=== Three Runs ===
... but it felt like five or six runs. Probably because every baserunner was a mortal shock.
Actually it was five or six runs, or should have been:
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1) In the first inning, the Mariners had 1B and 3B, 1 out. A hundred such innings get you 120 runs. Simply a fly ball was +1 run, and the probability of scoring the runner from 3B by any means is about 70%.
Guti grounded into a double play, probably not doing his stomach acids a lot of good. Dr. Grumpy can correct me... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/18/11
22 Comments
=== Jason Vargas Kicks Booty. Not Wednesday. In General. ===
Finally. At long last. After sixty sap-suckin' starts. Sixty of 'em!
... I got so tired of watching Vargas pitch like Adam Sandler in one of Sandler's infantile self-indulgent "watch the schmuck win the Masters" movies. I finally decided that it was going to be "understand Jason Vargas or commit hari-kari by Happy Madison immersion."
.........
I almost did not turn this one on, seriously. This close.
JERED WEAVER? The four best pitchers in the league are two M's and two Angels, right? Like the 1960's Penguin said to Rocky... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 05/18/11
13 Comments
The Ms will have money to spend in 2012, but not as much as it may first appear. As G-Money (I think) pointed out, Felix's contract goes up by $8.5M (from $10M to $18.5M). And Bedard, assuming he's back, will cost more than the $1M he's getting this year.
So it's probably best to figure on one additional bat, who would go at LF (probably) or DH. Nice thing is, as we've discussed before, those are the "easiest" spots to fill "on the market." That's the beauty of Ackley-at-Second.
I bring it up now, because it is probable that many of these guys will be available at the deadline, and it... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/17/11
9 Comments
Q. What's the template?
A. "Iron Mike" sinker-slider reliever, throws hard strikes, pitches to contact, lots of groundballs.
The Mariners have a fondness for mediocre, reliable strike-throwing NON HOME RUN pitchers in the 7th inning -- Sean White, Sean Green, Jamey Wright, etc.
Right now, we would all have a lot of fondness for any mediocre, reliable pitcher in the 7th. There have been nights at Boeing when I'd have given you $10 for a cold cup of coffee. Even if somebody had put a cigarette out in it. Especially if somebody had.
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Sully pointed out the M's collection of "... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/17/11
5 Comments
Obviously Pineda's delivery is unimprovable, from a command standpoint. Here, we're asking about his mechanics from a health standpoint.
To what extent do those two things overlap?
Give me 20 young pitchers with great K/BB's, against your 20 young pitchers with lousy CMD, and my group of pitchers will be much healthier.
I don't even need to look at their motions; the K/BB is a measure of their physical harmony. This is a Bill James axiom from the early '80's.
..........
Of course, some guys with great K/BB get hurt, like Mark Prior. Some guys with lousy K/BB also get hurt. We tend to... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/17/11
6 Comments
Spectator hooks us up. Thanks amigo!
All the strike threes in 38 seconds rightcheer: http://seattle.mariners.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=14879961
You might watch a few times just for the general ease and good cheer that you will bring to the rest of your day...
But then, with this 16 Mps download of strikeouts, compare the swings that the seven batters take. The first strikeout, Plouffe, he takes a normal swing. Normal means this:
The clubhead accelerates through the golf swing, including the finish
Plouffe uses some effort to keep his balance at the end (bathead bob)
Plouffe is... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/16/11
27 Comments
THE DH has played 35 games this year, with 150 plate appearances, and has 0 homers.
1/4 of the season. Slugging in the 200's.
And the Mariners have six (6) bats they'd like to check out: Peguero, Wilson, Carp, and Saunders, with backup infielders Rodriguez and Kennedy who need DH at-bats too. Five of these guys bat left-handed.
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When the Oakland A's have young hitters who interest them, and who are ML-ready, they waive DH's who (1) are OPS'ing 100 and who are (2) losing ground to 100 as time passes.
If the A's had two of those six players missing time -- Peguero, Wilson, Carp,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/16/11
21 Comments
PROPS TO ADAM KENNEDY, who played in the middle infield with ... drumroll ... Luis Rodriguez at short. The Mariners scored 5 runs in their first attempt at this offensive-MI configuration.
Weaver and Herzog used to run not only left-right platoons, but offensive-defensive platoons, day-night platoons and who knows what else. Here were the offensive MI's behind ... Michael Pineda, a strikeout flyball pitcher.
Good on yer, Mr. Wedge.
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PROPS TO MOE, who called shotgun on the idea that the deployment of LRod + Kennedy tonight might presage a Wilson release (and Ackley callup). Wow,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/16/11
2 Comments
It was a no-brainer that Michael Pineda would star in the big leagues right away. Had to be, considering which mobile home you found it in.
What wasn't a no-brainer was that Michael Pineda would be one of the six best pitchers in the American League from the word Go. Here are the things that SSI, in February, had no guarantees on:
That his FB command would be "80" rather than "65"
That his slider would be "80" rather than "60 plus"
That he would have 70-plus pitchability
I mean, we were hoping for some of the above things, but we sold Pineda very conservatively this March, as a house... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/16/11
=== Slider ===
Pineda's smoother FB arm action made his slider better.
It has been a wipeout pitch all year, and on May 16 it was an 84 mph spitball.
.........
What was happening, was that he was snapping off his slider with a slightly harder arm action than on his fastball. This created garbage swings off his slider.
Think about it for one second. The batter is tuned into Pineda's shoulder and arm, and WHOOM HE'S REACHED BACK FOR EXTRA! but .... the ball hits the dragster chutes and isn't there.
Eric Wedge preaches that you can analyze pitching by watching hitters' reactions. Bad for... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/16/11
=== Let's! Go! to! the Video! Tape! ===
Rather than just going "Wow, isn't he great!," :- ) let's get to specifics, what Michael Pineda did on Monday that other pitchers -- say Edwin Jackson or Ervin Santana -- could not have done.
Let's start with the first 4 strikeouts, those coming in innings 1 and 2. (Per Dr. Kelly's theorem, 57% of Pineda's strikeouts came in the first 28% of his innings. Then the Twins quit on the game and played not to be embarrassed, rather than playing to win.)
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=== IP 1 - Trevor Plouffe - Strikeout ===
WHAT PINEDA DID THAT EDWIN JACKSON WOULD NOT HAVE DONE: ... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/16/11
=== IP 2 - Justin Morneau - Strikeout ===
WHAT PINEDA DID THAT EDWIN JACKSON WOULD NOT HAVE DONE: See the inscribed circle* again? (Since it haunted the Twinkies' hitters... it may as well haunt you!)
Notice that pitches 1 and 2 should have been called strikes. A little Justin Morneau respect here from the home plate ump? ... Edwin Jackson would not have come back from 2-0. "Big Train" Pineda wasn't even nicked at a glancing blow.
On 2-0, Pineda shrugs. Oh wow. There's the black. Think I'll throw the ball there for a strike.
On 2-1, check it out again. Then tell me if there is... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/16/11
=== IP 4 - Trevor Plouffe - Routine SS Groundout ===
Does it seem dreary that we bring up that inscribed circle again? And that the count was 1-and-5, one "just missed" Catfish pitch and five strikes -- despite nothing to hit?
If it feels dreary and monotonous to you, imagine the dreariness for ML hitters.
Michael Pineda isn't getting outs by accident. He's getting outs because he has velocity intersected with command on a game-in, game-out basis.
WHAT PINEDA DID THAT EDWIN JACKSON WOULD NOT HAVE DONE: In this at-bat, I'm particularly taken with Pineda's unpredictability.
Not only does... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/16/11
=== IP 4 - Michael Cuddyer - Groundout Other Way ===
Again I'm taken by Pineda's emerging interest in --- > the Catfish Syndrome, taking liberties with the outside corner.
Actually ... you amigos would probably relate to that better if I called it the Maddux/Glavine syndrome, eh? :- )
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Can you imagine what happens when the umps start "buying in" to the rookie and giving him the Maddux treatment on the strike zone?
The ump buried Pineda again with a blown call. On 2-1, Pineda chose the parachute slider for an easy garbage strike. He throws it with impunity.
But then, he throws a... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/16/11
9 Comments
=== IP 7 - Drew Butera - Out ===
Hey, Mr. Frederiksen, check out the Snipe over there! Pitch one, Pineda missed by a blinkin' foot. Had you forgotten that some pitches are clearly balls or clearly strikes? The home plate ump had.
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Again it's the catcher up at the plate... and on 0-1 Pineda comes back with three different fastballs. The scouts refer to these as separate weapons: "he's got the fastball in, he'll throw the fastball away on you, he'll take you up the ladder."
This is actually a hackneyed pitch sequence, provided that you're Greg Maddux or Christy Mathewson.
If you... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/15/11
28 Comments
Sometimes the math just doesn't work out for Dr. D...
Sez Sandy,
I don't pretend to understand the entire arb system ... but IIRC, Ackley signed a 6-year contract. So, regardless of when he comes up, isn't he ALREADY signed through 2015? Doesn't that sort of negate much of the SOP impact of Super2?
From my perspective, the situation with Ackley is that (assuming he is a SUCCESSFUL MLB player), the club will likely be looking to renegotiate a longer term deal in 2014 ... like they did with Felix. If he flops, of course, the whole arbitration concern becomes a non-issue.
Great point... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/15/11
13 Comments
=== Mike Carp ===
With a 3-homer game last night, now has 39 PCL homers in his last 145 games. The man is going bananas.
It used to be that he ran EYE ratios like 78:89 with modest power. He has taken a liking to the jack and is ripping them off in bunches.
His EYE has gone from 0.80 earlier, to 0.35 now. But Shandlerites will recognize a conscious decision to open up the swing. There can be no question that Carp can tell a ball from a strike; he brought his excellent 0.67 EYE with him from AAA to the majors with no transition whatsoever.
No, Carp's K/BB ratio occurred because he... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/15/11
21 Comments
=== Taijuan Walker ===
Had a huge game over the weekend. Says Cool Papa:
Taijaun Walker pitched for the third time this year and was on fire. He struck out 11 men in 6.1 innings while allowing only two singles and walking nobody. He is only 18 and facing off against a lineup with an average age 22 yet was completely overwhelming, striking out over half the guys he faced. He's looking like the real deal.
The game report said that he took a no-no into the 6th. Wound up with 2 singles, 11 strikeouts, and 8 other outs... all via groundball.
[Strikeouts + groundballs] always amuse Dr. D... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/13/11
5 Comments
SLOPS TO LEAGUE'S PREDICTABILITY, which this week may have single-handedly converted a .500 record to a 16-23 record. Article here.
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PROPS TO DOUG FISTER'S IMPROVEMENTS. Don't look now, but Fister appears to be getting really good.
90% of pitchers go through plateaus, and then leap to the next one. But Doug Fister seems to be one of those birds who flies on a continuous line upward. Who knows where this guy is headed from here...
Friday, he locked down a 117 OPS+ offense that was jam-packed with deadly LH hitters. The Indians got only four hits and one walk off him, striking out... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/13/11
5 Comments
Q. Time to bail on the M's season?
A. On your feet, soldier.
With the Angels losing tonight, the M's remain only -5 back with 120+ games to play. Time to play better, is what time it is.
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Q. Was League's Sasaki Syndrome to blame for this one?
A. To be fair, two of the three death blows were delivered on Non-Syndrome Counts.
True, League threw 13 pitches, of which all 13 were consistent with The Book on him. 13-for-13.
But the first double, and the walkoff home run, were on 1-1 and 0-1 counts, the two counts on which League has been less predictable. In fairness, we've got to point... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/13/11
3 Comments
'TIS BUT A SCRATCH: The M's are -5 games behind at the quarter pole.
I'M INVINCIBLE!: Good news. AL West teams are giving Jack Zduriencik all kinds of time to scrape up a 95 offense. If the M's were in the AL Central, they'd be -8 down.
In poker, you have aces wired, you don't want to let your opponent "call" his way into three extra draws at his straight.
In chess, it's like having a massive attack position, hemming and hawing about it, and suddenly finding that your opponent is threatening an invasion on the queenside.
In the NBA, it's like when the Lakers have the Clippers in and... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/13/11
Q. The last two blown saves felt like catastrophes. League is pitching badly, or is it that this club needs too much out of its closer?
A. For five weeks, M's got accustomed to winning every game that they ever led by one run.
This ballclub needs too much out of its (ad hoc) closer and setup man. League's performance can be easily improved, but .... the bullpen was pitching over its head early in the season. That near-perfect bullpen was needed just to keep the Archie Andrews Jalopy popping and pinging along at close to .500.
League is what, 9-for-11, which is within the range of... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 05/11/11
30 Comments
==Back on the Radar==
Carlos Triunfel -- Left in Nick Franklin's dust by pretty much everyone, here comes Triunfel -- still only 21 -- showing the bat that we'd always hoped for and playing SS everyday. Only Rich Poythress and Kyle Seager have more doubles in the org and he added his 3rd dinger last night (13 XBH in 27 G). He'll never walk a ton, but he keeps his K rate in the teens. He has 7 errors at short, but reports are that he is not showing the laziness on routine plays that concerned folks in the past.
Offensive line: .292/.330/.481, or an OPS about 300 points higher than... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/10/11
31 Comments
PROPS TO PROPS. Not going to pour iodized salt into the 13th-inning wound. After that game, let's just do props.
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PROPS TO STARS & SCRUBS. The Mariners are the same thing right now that they would have been --- > if Jack Cust's 12th-inning double would have gone 5 more feet, become a cheap home run, and won the game.
That "same thing" is this: a team with intense strengths and intense weaknesses.
Which is a great thing. You can replace six terrible players with six mediocre ones. You can't replace 25 below-average players with 25 good ones.
You can find a player to replace a... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 05/10/11
58 Comments
paracorto asks: what's up with Anthony Rendon's injuries?
The Rice 3b (well, so far in 2011, Rice DH) currently has a shoulder strain, previously he had two ankle injuries (same ankle). Ankle is completely healed, and both were "freak accident" type injuries not considered recurring.
The shoulder strain has kept him from throwing from third base. Originally, it was just supposed to be for a few weeks, but it is going on three months now. Supposedly there are no long-term issues. Impossible to know, but it seems that part of not playing him at 3b is an overabundance of caution (which,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/09/11
13 Comments
Don't have too much else to do at the moment :- ) and am more interested in the Michael Wilson trial than I'd be with a lot of other things, such as continued Ryan Langerhans at-bats, Carlos Peguero experiments, or waiting to see if our DH can get a ball out to the warning track on this road trip.
So, here y'go amig-O's. The Linebacker Template.
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=== State of the Chatter ===
For those who just joined us, here's a 10-second lead-in on what people think about Wilson getting a chance in the majors:
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AGIN': Can't hit good velocity.
FO': If true ... also true of some ML players. And they... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/08/11
11 Comments
If you haven't read this article linked by Taro, check it out.
Taro starting to sway us ... at the #3 pick :- ) ... no, just kidding.
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=== SAT's Dept. ===
In the 1970's and 1980's, James used to make this one of his top 5, 6 criteria for a young pitching prospect. He thought high IQ, or at least high baseball IQ, was an important factor in projecting success.
Take two pitchers with exactly the same stuff, one with a 100 IQ and another with a 140 IQ, and there are countless advantages that the smart guy (Jamie Moyer, Erik Bedard, Greg Maddux, etc) has.
There is pitchability - just the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/08/11
20 Comments
Q. What's the bottom line on Wilson?
A. Mike Wilson is an enigma, and therefore an inkblot test. From bloggers' reactions to Wilson, you can see their own commentaries on themselves.
We mean it in a good way.
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Q. What is SSI's assessment of Wilson?
A. Merely that, as of May 8, 2011, he offers the Mariners their best internal chance at the Theoretical Dark Matter that fangraphs calls the "replacement level player."
SSI doesn't guarantee that Wilson will play well. It merely opines that if you buy into the shtick that RLP's can be obtained quickly and cheaply, you ought to be on board... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/08/11
30 Comments
Q. What is Milton Bradley's situation?
A. /cosign on releasing Bradley. And SSI will even go so far as to gingerly guess that it's what they're going to do.
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Q. Why wouldn't they release Bradley?
A. Large companies, with 4+ layers of management, operate under a lot of internal political pressure. Any $$$-intensive "sunk cost" makes somebody look real bad, and it can weaken an exec's political capital if not actually shorten his rope.
A writeoff like this can reduce a director's Mario lives from two to one (though it doesn't here).
Everybody who chimed in on acquiring Bradley would... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/06/11
33 Comments
=== SIZZLERS ===
JACK CUST has a .500 OBP the last week -- 4 hits (one double off the Green Monster), a HBP, and 5 walks in 20 plate appearances.
For all that, his SLG is a measly .367 this week. His type of player -- the .375 OBP with no wheels and no power and no defense -- sets the lower boundary of what OBP alone is worth. Not much: his runs created per 27 outs is 3.5 on the year. It's designated hitter, not designated walker-and-trot-back-to-the-dugout-from-second-base'r.
On any other team, let's say the Oakland A's, he'd be waived. On this one, he has helped the ballclub. Most of... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/06/11
5 Comments
In the 1970's, Bill James realized that it was easier to build playoff teams in pitchers' parks. STATS later confirmed this.
James' sense of history identified a primary reason why: in parks like Fenway, the hitters developed egos, and they started playing for themselves and their paychecks.
He noted that every good Red Sox team from 1930 to 1980 (or something) was one that had been recently torn down and rebuilt, jettisoning its ego'ed stars for fresh blood.
You'll find that this is true historically: after a star-studded team wins it all, it often goes on the pizza circuit that... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/05/11
5 Comments
=== Sasaki Syndrome, 5.5.11 ===
Brandon League is 9-for-9 and has slapped an automatic feel onto the M's 9th innings. Today, Dan Wilson innocently referred to the M's bullpen as "awesome". :- )
At this point, Dr. D's moaning about League's pitch-count tendencies are petty little quibbles. We'll stick with them anyway, since they're deliciously instructive w/r/t the hitter-pitcher game within a game.
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CHRIS DAVIS - For the third consecutive game, League got to face the bottom of a lineup for an easy save. That's not his fault, of course.
The only "pre-announced" danger pitch in the AB was... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/05/11
21 Comments
SLOPS TO JUSTIN SMOAK who, for the second time this year, had a HR catch the top of the fence on its way out. Or so they said on the radio; didn't see this game before the sixth inning.
Did see the one earlier this year that hit just about one foot from the top of the left-center fence, and did see the 420-footer into the wind in Detroit's vast CF that wound up a double. That double had to have been hit better, literally hit better, than any of his five HR's.
Smoak has hit more like 6-8 homers this year, rather than five. Pro-rated, that would be 30-40 homers on the season.
Now, Smoak's... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/04/11
33 Comments
SLOPS TO THE LOST CHANCES AT 32/32 QUALITY STARTS - I was kind of hoping for a 23-4, 1.99 season with 32 quality starts. Reality sinks in and we may have to settle for something more like Justin Verlander's best season (19-9, 3.45). We kid ... probably.
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In this March 16th article, we gave our $0.02 as to why anybody would ever score runs on Michael Pineda. :- ) He threw 22 strikes to open the game that day, gave up four or five hard hits, and gave the false impression that he might be something other than a miracle.
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On May 4th, Michael again stuck his fingers too deep into... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/03/11
17 Comments
The concept of beauty is a favorite area of study. Every person, including children, criminals, and everyone in between, appreciates and needs beauty.
I believe that everything beautiful possesses two key elements: (1) it pleases one or more of the five human senses, and (2) it satisfies, impresses, or appeals to man's higher and nobler values.
A lime popsicle pleases the senses, but is not beautiful. The Sistine Chapel pleases the sense of sight, and also calls to our attention how much effort and mastery a single man can put into a project. It suggests to us that we could do the same... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/03/11
=== Inning 4 ===
Bedard is in a rocking chair. He's firing, and after the 5-3 putout, he's holding out his glove demanding the ball back, "Cmon Cmon Cmon." Actually mouthing the words on TV.
He throws first-pitch fastballs to each of the three batters, as if bluffing on the first hand of a long poker night .... and then follows with curve balls, like a poker player tightening up after an early fast-play representation.
Beltre does a great job to hit a deep fly ball off one curve, but the other two guys tap grounders to Chone Figgins.
Erik Bedard is a LH ground ball pitcher. Chone Figgins... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/03/11
15 Comments
=== Inning 7 ===
We go into the late innings behind, but Naftali Feliz is on the DL and Wedge's boys are spitting and snarling.
Langerhans' slider-speed bat gets an 83 slider from Strop and he swats a long single into RCF. Ryan bunts and .... Torrealba commits a rather shrill gamble, trying to cut down Langerhans at 3B.
Langerhans slides head-first, winning the game with his slide.
............
Dr. D's 3rd-biggest pet peeve in baseball (beanballs, closers) is runners refusing to slide head-first. They always say that they're avoiding injury, but have you ever seen an injury off a head-... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/03/11
Q. Any Poli Sci 101, 102 prereq's to this class, Dr?
A. Two. First one, our April 10th chalk talk after Erikkk got splattered for six (mostly) lucky runs.
The consensus elsewhere was that Erikkk had terrible stuff, and was done. Our two-parter gave the specifics as to why that was in error.
Second prereq: our April 28th syllabus which discussed the particular pitch on which Erik Bedard returned to stardom.
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Q. Okay. What's the bottom line on his May 3rd start against Texas?
A. His curve is all the way back; his fastball is pretty much back except for location; he's now got the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/03/11
6 Comments
Q. With such good stuff, why did he get only six swinging strikes and only three strikeouts?
A. Several reasons. For one thing, Bedard always has a higher K rate than --- > you'd expect for his SwStr%. That's because his yakker freezes batters for called strikes.
I'm sure one day Hardball Times will publish the article showing that guys with great curves "K-Outperform" their swing/miss rate.
So:
Bedard's a called-strike pitcher, to some degree
The ump refused to call the low curve
The Rangers were simply good at fouling it off, Tuesday
ML batters in general now --- > fight off... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/03/11
As we noted here, the 2011 Brandon League always ("always" in this instance meaning: always) throws a fastball in two situations:
If he has not yet thrown a fastball in an AB, including the first pitch (0-0, 1-0, 2-0, 3-0)
If he has fallen behind (2-1, 3-1, and 3-2 counts)
The other team, of course, knows this.
So, in these pitch counts it would not harm League to hold his mitt above his head, palm toward the plate, and call, "Fastball now! Okay?", and then throw. The batter would gain no advantage he does not currently possess.
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In recording his 'tough save' on May 3, 2011, League threw... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/03/11
25 Comments
Brandon League's pitch selection by count, 2011 season:
I/O: Sully says that Brandon League hasn't been quite as good as he's looked. He's right.
CRUNCH: I've been real pleased with League's outings, and have said so, though just in quick-takes. You don't have time to tear apart every car that comes in for an oil change :- )
League's BB's are down to a miniscule 1.6 per game this year. My enjoyment of League's outings has been based on the intersection of (1) a top-10-in-baseball fastball, (2) a true wipeout slider, and (3) zero walks.
Instinctively, I react to that trifecta as... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 05/03/11
6 Comments
=== 2001 Redux ===
The 116-win M's lost the 2001 ALCS in large part because the Yankees had the pitch-count tendencies and my man Lou Piniella didn't worry about them much. The blow of the series, by Alfonso Soriano, was an HR off Kazuhiro Sasaki in a pitch count on which Sasaki threw almost 100% the same pitch all year.
It's the same as pitch-tipping.
For 35 years, the M's have given away runs to superior advance scouting and superior pitch-count analysis.
So far, Pineda's 2-0 fastballs have avoided the worst, due to their sheer excellence. But you can't inform the batter of what's coming... Read More