March 2014
… tonight we have something decidedly Off Script
Posted by jemanji on 03/31/14
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I - Disaster Strikes
In the first inning Felix tried to throw a low-and-away slider to Mike Trout. He missed, the slider was low-and-in, and Trout hit it out for a 2-run shot.
If you just joined us, classic pitch sequencing calls for fastballs in, slow stuff away. You vary, of course, but ... it is VERY dangerous to throw soft stuff on the hands, because the barrel of the (out-in-front) bat naturally lines up with the inside location.
Felix made a single mistake. That phrase gets wayyyy over-used, but in this case? Zunino set up exactly on the black, outside. Felix put the pitch... Read More
LoMo planning a vicious beatdown of Jered Weaver
Posted by jemanji on 03/31/14
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Nice cup on the bat there LoMo. And he's aiming it cup high. Love the white knuckles. Baa-aad intentions, bab-eh.
....
The ugly reality of Jered Weaver looms tonight. Here's another reality check, with the center column giving you the HQ "takeaway ideas" on each player's 2014 prospects.
Player
HQ "label"
#
Almonte, CF
Impact 4th outfielder
Okay OBP, nice SB, some HR
"Bradley" Miller, SS
Will impact from Opening Day
$19 roto!
Cano, FK (fort knox)
Will age gracefully
$35 roto (!!)
Smoak, 1B
Ready to step up
240/330/420 with 35 HR upside
Seager, 3B
High "floor," power maturing
$20 roto... Read More
Companion piece to the other article on hitters
Posted by Spectator on 03/31/14
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Second part of the introduction to "Mariners 2014: The Fleet Arrives?"
This part examines the gap between the 2013 Mariners pitching results and those of the Wild Card teams.
No big surprise: the gap is in the Nos. 3+ starters.
Article here.
Homepage here.
First part of a comprehensive analysis
Posted by Spectator on 03/30/14
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I am commencing a Special Report with 12 articles comparing the 2014 Mariners to the team's 2013 results.
Details on access will be coming soon, but the first one is on MarinerBrainstorm now.
It compares the 2013 Mariner hitters to the three teams that qualified for the Wild Card. Same thing for pitchers coming next.
Article here.
Homepage here.
Looks like meat's back on the menu, boys … for Felix, that is
Posted by jemanji on 03/30/14
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SSI mosh pit! :: crowd goes wild ::
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Felix Hernandez set for 7th opening-day start - Ryan Divish, Times
I was gonna do a little analysis piece, trying to figure out if Felix has been good on Opening Day. :-} Divish's article will serve just fine. We'll slam-dance him over into Spectator and see who wins the collision.
He points out that Felix is 4-0, 1.33 all time on Opening Day. His piece also reminds us that the Mariners and Felix didn't have to agree a 7-year deal.
Career, he has pitched 35 (!!) games against the Angels, a full 236 innings. Bill James loves stat splits that equal... Read More
Last-minute preparations
Posted by Spectator on 03/29/14
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Final MLB Opening Day roster is not really surprising. Nick Franklin didn't fit.
Rich Poythress released -- Choi and Montero need the time.
But Ryan Rowland-Smith makes the majors for the first time since 2010.
Is there anyone left to pitch for Tacoma? Not really.
Article here.
Home page here.
OH NOOOOOoooooooooo …..
Posted by jemanji on 03/28/14
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Q. Is Dr. Detecto routinely genteel and friendly towards the Mariners' front office?
A. Routinely.
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Q. Explain to us, again, why Bill James has been on that crusade that --- > LH relievers are overused?
A. Thusly:
The platoon advantage is .040 worth of batting average. It ain't a big fat hairy deal.
Managers put mediocre lefties in to replace good righties - the gap in pitcher quality often (far) exceeds the generic platoon advantage.
Managers also put BAD lefties in to replace good righties.
Managers also bring lefties in to replace good RHP's who are throwing great that night.... Read More
Rotation, bullpen, a bit of minors
Posted by Spectator on 03/28/14
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News:
Young is stretched out and ready to go
He got a major-league deal, so it's not a tryout -- he's on the roster
Iwakuma & Walker will rehab at High Desert
Victor Sanchez looks ready to skip to AA
Article with commentary here.
Homepage here.
Simplicity itself, baby
Posted by jemanji on 03/27/14
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Q. So this meatball draws a grrroooooaaaan from Dr. D?
A. No, we're pleased to announce that you guessed wrong again. Ya saps, ya's.
Chris Young is about the kewlest placeholder we coulda come up with. I'm really looking forward to watching him pitch. For three games.
Edit to add, let's hope he's a placeholder. :: flip ::
Edit to add again, unless that stuff about 88 MPH is accurate. :: flop back again ::
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Q. What's so kewl?
A. First of all, if you haven't read this article rat cheer, you have no right to watch a Chris Young game. It reads in part:
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The length of most pitchers... Read More
If he can stay healthy for 45 days ...
Posted by Spectator on 03/27/14
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The retread carousel of surgically repaired starters whirls on.
Is Chris Young the one?
If he's throwing pain-free from his 6-foot-10 vantage point ... maybe.
It worked pretty well back during the Bush Administration at least.
MarinerBrainstorm.com
Bring it OWWNN
Posted by jemanji on 03/26/14
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Gettin' loose, in early March, that's one thing. Spring Training stats are a meld of 70% useless games, and 30% useful games, and usually do more harm than good. (But, cough corey hart cough. harumph brad miller harumph.)
Fortunately for us, in later March --- > certain games do contain --- > certain innings that --- > are of MLB(TM) quality. You don't get a 50-AB statistical "sample" (grooaaaan) but you do get what the scouts get: a chance to see whether Abraham Almonte can deal with vicious pitches.
On March 21st, Jeff Samardzija bit the M's surfboard in half, jumped on top... Read More
und take zis mit you, Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 03/26/14
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Almonte LF. Rating = 5 to 6 (on a 1-10 scale)
The first AB against Brett Anderson, Dr. D fell out of his chair. The same LH Almonte who'd sat on his back leg and swatted at pitches, Boggs-style ... that guy, in the other batter's box, absolutely pulled a Me-Myself-and-Irene on us. now hitting RH, loaded up, looked for a zone, and fired the bat through the zone like Lloyd McClendon just told Almonte he didn't love him any more.
It wasn't just hacking away mindlessly. Almonte controlled the zone, read the pitch, turned on fastballs, held up for breaking pitches, and smoked loud foul balls... Read More
Cano, Seager, Smoak: using the local fauna in the theater of war
Posted by jemanji on 03/26/14
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Robinson Cano, 2B. Rating = 7 to 8
(DNP against Andersen. Went 0-for-4 against Chen. Went 509-for-1755 against left hand pitchers previously, with 57 homers, 94 doubles and 115 walks.)
Cano is who he is; his performance against LHP's is known. Known to be very good, that is.
Lifetime he hits lefties at a .290 clip, which has got to be about the highest in the game for LH-on-LH. He's about .290/.350/.450 each year when he's got the platoon disadvantage. Like Fielder, he simply dials back the power a little when there's a lefty out there -- hits .300 with some gap power, as opposed to... Read More
Zunino and Romero: surface-to-air Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 03/26/14
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Mike Zunino, C. Rating = 4 to 5
This is a scouting report based on two games. Not a discussion of what it implies, that Mike Zunino has 173 big league at-bats. The latter would be somewhat less encouraging than the former.
This is the funniest swing of the last two years. Zunino barely moves his lower half, and then he stops it anyway, long before the swing. The backstroke - the "raising of the hammer" - simply isn't. He just pauses, sinks the weight a bit, lets the hands go with no load and .... would you watch that left fielder, please?!
Heh, heh, HEH!
Mike Zunino, kiddies, was a #3... Read More
When 2 is the new 5
Posted by jemanji on 03/26/14
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So on Wednesday, Erasmo goes out and detonates a Ranger lineup that:
Is familiar with him from past encounters (3 games, 2.38 ERA)
Features the LH Shin-Soo Choo leading off, and the LH Prince Fielder hitting 3rd
Has Kevin Kouzmanoff, Keith Moreland, but not (as far as Dr. D could tell) Jurickson Profar, Nelson Cruz, Josh Hamilton, Ian Kinsler, Michael Young, or Mike Napoli
Immediately mulched Charlie Furbush upon his entrance into the game
Erasmo pitched 5, walked 0, fanned 6, and gave up 3 hits. Furbush allowed the 1 run to score.
Erasmo leads the ballclub in innings pitched, with 23.2,... Read More
News & Notes on Wolf, Maurer, Franklin
Posted by Spectator on 03/26/14
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Ah, it looks as if our Esteemed Host has already chimed in on some this stuff, but he also says he likes the link-ups, so link up we shall.
Wolf exits stage left.
Maurer gets a money quote from Lloyd Mac
You too can learn an exciting new career in just three or four days at Van Slyke University of Outfielding.
Article here.
Homepage: MarinerBrainstorm.com
Yu gotta be kiddin' me
Posted by jemanji on 03/26/14
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Ryan Divish at the Seattle Times reports that Nick Franklin took 2 innings in RF. Ryan isn't pleased. Let's give a "roundtable" (as opposed to "debate") style followon.
...
By the way, when Geoff Baker was beat writer for the Times, he'd link to SSI frequently, and with gusto. This is because SSI is :: ahem, adjusts tie :: the best Seattle site for info-taining baseball analysis.
Since Baker left and Divish took over, we notice that the Times has reverted to follow every other "mainstream" outlet -- the Times' "editorial links" (those in the text of articles) now point to everyplace in... Read More
One of those ad "mistakes" is, um, Uncalled For
Posted by jemanji on 03/26/14
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The Mariners could have guaranteed Wolf $1 million, rather than half a million.* After Wolf "did everything right," the Mariners informed Wolf that they decided to give him the half million. Mr. Wolf was displeased.
As you review the situation, keep in mind that vis-a-vis Jack Zduriencik, Randy Wolf is (somewhat ... say, 40%) in the Jamie Moyer category. "Classy org soldier who wants to go out with dignity."
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From Randy Wolf's Point of View
Thusly:
He and Zduriencik are old MLB(TM) warriors who have chewed a lotta the same dirt
He's age 37 and has "paid his dues," is entitled to lots... Read More
Why decisions about Baker, Bedard, etc. are coming now
Posted by Spectator on 03/25/14
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The timing of all these veteran releases is Article XX(B) of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement.
I have a new post here.
In addition to Bedard, Freddy Garcia and David Aardsma are available for a reunion tour. But, oddly, not Aaron Harang.
MarinerBrainstorm.com
As requested by Tacoma Rain
Posted by Spectator on 03/25/14
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After the "News Alert!" on Scott Baker, some more roster-update checkpoints were needed, and requested by Tacoma Rain, so here goes:
25-man checkpoint
40-man analysis
All at MarinerBrainstorm.com
M's get the healthy Baker - and THEN shed him
Posted by jemanji on 03/24/14
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The release of Scott Baker took SSI by complete surprise. Bill Krueger took it as a given that BOTH Randy Wolf and Scott Baker would line up in the 4-5 behind Paxton and Erasmo. We figgered Bill was right.
And that would have been quite understandable. It wouldn't have been "the M's being the M's"; a lot of teams would have done that. Probably the Angels woulda done it that way. The "solid" MLB(TM) choice woulda been, 4 Baker. 5 Wolf.
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Dr. D's preferred "Big Board" as to April rotation shim
1 Roenis Elias
2 Scott Baker
3 Blake Beavan
4 Randy Wolf
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Bill Krueger's
1 Scott Baker
2... Read More
Stars & Scrubs, bab-eh
Posted by jemanji on 03/24/14
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Rhapsody
Jim Bowden was on, raving about Dustin Ackley. He's headed this year for .290, forty doubles, plenty of walks, sez Take-A-Bow-Den. Ackley is the big bustout candidate for Bowden, who'd spent some time with Ackley this spring, I guess. Stylistically we'd be talking about a lefty Dustin Pedroia; anything like .290 with tons of doubles, and some walks, and in Safeco he's going to wind up with a 125 OPS+ or so.
Like a hand-in-glove fit for the #2 spot in a championship batting order.
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Brad Miller. He's become the buzz of baseball. Not of Seattle. Of baseball. I'm savoring... Read More
Spanning the globe to bring you the constant variety of Mariners prospects
Posted by Spectator on 03/24/14
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Plenty of international flavor in this threesome.
24. Julio Morban -- can the Dominican stay healthy long enough to put his skills together?
25. Dylan Unsworth -- the greatest baseball player in the history of South Africa? fascinating, but also good
26. Lars Huijer -- straight outta Haarlem
All at MarinerBrainstorm.com
And the countdown keeps rollin' ...
Posted by Spectator on 03/22/14
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If there were MB 100 brackets, maybe these would be upsets to make the round of 32.
27. Stephen Kohlscheen -- tall righty's plateau leap has him rising with a bullet
28. Corey Simpson -- many mocked his 1b skills on YouTube, but the bat looked good
29. Stephen Landazuri -- this Stephen is also righty, though not tall, but we love the underdog
All at MarinerBrainstorm.com
Or not
Posted by jemanji on 03/21/14
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Jeff Samardzija was throwing BB's for the Cubs on Friday - absolutely midseason, 3-hit shutout, form.
Not talking my opinion. Talking fact. The Cubs' manager put on the headset, about the 4th inning, and he was giggling. "Wow, wow, wow. Jeff looks fantastic."
.....
In that context, Dr. D was curious as to which Mariners hitters held up under the withering radation. Could Abraham Almonte cover the strike zone front and back -- could he get to a hot fastball, and could he hold up for a slider? Were the swings defensive? Or what?
As Earl said, "Nobody cares on April 5 whether you won... Read More
You suuuuurrrre there's no way to get this guy on our team?!
Posted by jemanji on 03/21/14
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Smoak, 1B -- Rating = 3, maybe
Whoops, we got the batting order switched up here. File for your refund at 1-800-KLAT-RULZ.
Dr. D was concerned. The first AB was a routine K, and Smoak did NOT look quick to the ball in Screen Drill style. What, here we go again? Smoak's game is fine against second-rate fishing, but useless against Shark Attax?
Second AB, there was an outside fastball and Smoak lunged at it, trying to pull it. Classic rollover easy groundout. GRRRrrrrr.
Third AB, Samardzija blew him away.
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The good ... Smoak's weight control looked positive; his "Ki" was... Read More
Another trio for the Top 40
Posted by Spectator on 03/21/14
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Three more of the Top 40
30. John Hicks -- throwing arm still good, bat didn't make the trip from High Desert to Jackson
31. Jabari Henry -- Jabari Parker (Duke hoops) is done for the year, but the Mariners pair of Jabaris is just getting started; and don't just focus on Blash
32. Emilio Pagan -- we told you about Dominic Leone before anyone else, so pay attention
All at MarinerBrainstorm.com
Don' hold yer breath
Posted by jemanji on 03/20/14
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Merks axs a very good question:
merks: I know it's not ideal but I would rather have Franklin as my DH 4 times a week with a game or two in the field than trade him or send him down to Tacoma. Am I missing something here or has this been talked about?
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SSI is all about creative thinking, but .... Let's start with an understanding how how most ML teams view reserve infielders (which is, like it or not, how they would view Nick Franklin if he were on the 25-man roster).
They view it as a VERY difficult, you could almost say near-impossible, assignment: Your Willie Bloomquist, or your... Read More
Dr. D jumps onto the top of the pile
Posted by jemanji on 03/20/14
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I/O: The entire blog-o-sphere is -- uncharacteristically -- swooooooning over Brad Miller's spring performance.
CRUNCH: Dr. D is impressed by (other) sites' ability to put aside the baseline assumption, that Spring Training does not count. Generalizations are fine, but mastery of any subject depends on one's ability to find exceptions to the general rules. With respect to Miller, this is occurring.
In the SSI Shout Box, of course, the denizens never did have any trouble grok'king the fact that Brad Miller's spring may have dire implications for the pesky rodent Angels.
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Dr. D's own... Read More
Ivy Leaguer. Nephew. Southpaw.
Posted by Spectator on 03/20/14
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More from the MB 100 Top 40.
33. Dario Pizzano -- Columbia alum can hit, but ...
34. Gabriel Guerrero -- will the nephew get his own fan song, too?
35. Anthony Fernandez -- a year ago, he was ahead of his lefty peer Roenis Elias
Read during the commercial breaks of the hoops. You know there'll be plenty of them.
All at MarinerBrainstorm.com
Three more from the Top 40 countdown
Posted by Spectator on 03/18/14
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Top 40 2014 marches on:
36. Tyler Burgoon -- RH hitters can't figure out the 5-10 Wolverine
37. Logan Bawcom -- Lone Star Logan is still hangin' around
38. Tim Lopes -- playing 2b for the Mariners suddenly doesn't look like a great career move
All at MarinerBrainstorm.com
Dr. D's piano playing and his blogging = sausage fingerwork
Posted by jemanji on 03/17/14
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2Legit or Not2Legit? Roenis Elias - MarinerBrainstorm.com
Spec is nails on this one. Good read even by his standards.
He believes that even if Elias has jumped a plateau - very possible in his view - he still needs to show MLB-ready performance at AAA. It's a very tough argument to oppose.
Dr. D shares this view, with a big asterisk. Elias was sold long last year, but his MLE's just didn't bear it out, not in terms of Elias' K:BB ratio. And now everybody's raving again - but Elias has more walks than strikeouts.
....
Bat571 has adopted Elias, who is liable to make Bat look like a... Read More
Mixed verdicts on Legit-itude
Posted by Spectator on 03/17/14
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We’ve never doubted that “next in line” among the in-house options for a RH bat was Stefen Romero.
What we have doubted, contrary to other voices, is that Romero is ticketed to an everyday role in the majors as an impact hitter.
Put differently: I would not project Romero as an impact hitter in the majors without a plateau-leap that is exceedingly rare for players over age-23.
More here.
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Suddenly, everyone’s talking about Roenis Elias.
And that’s a good thing, because he’s a good pitcher and a better story (sneaking out of Cuba on a raft despite marginal prospects of a baseball career... Read More
SSI personal record: Gallons Soup / 1 Oyster
Posted by jemanji on 03/16/14
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Wish we could help yer on Roenis Elias, boys. Trouble is, you're really supposed to watch somebody pitch first. ... :- / But since he's, um, in the Seattle Mariners rotation whilst simultaneously being nothing but a rumor, we better give you whatever we gots.
Dr. D could find one (1) glimpse of him on YouTube, that being about 4 pitches two years ago ... in a 21-10 loss. HEH! ... the video made no sense at all, because Roenis was coming down by Laredo, sidearm - while keeping the ball high in the zone. (His delivery alone tells you that we are not exactly talking Javier Lopez or Sid... Read More
We wuz robbed
Posted by jemanji on 03/15/14
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During the game, I thought MAN! ... How could one pitcher miss with so many fastballs IN THE SAME SPOT!?
K-Pax was right over the plate, but consistently low, or that was the best I could tell from the weird camera angle. Seriously, out of 75-80 pitches he must have thrown 20, I am saying twenty, pitches, right down the pipe -- but shin-high. Whaaaa? ... ? Never in 92,734 games has Dr. D seen this phenomenon.
Like they say, in baseball you see something new every day. Was Paxton flopping over his leg and releasing the ball late? Or what?!
Only after seeing the GameDay did we realize... Read More
In between the Bradys, Dowds and Blashes, there wuz stuff
Posted by jemanji on 03/15/14
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Just in sound-byte mode here. As y'know, we live ta serve :- )
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Justin Smoak
First time up, batting right ... he got a low-in fastball. Pulled the hands in, Screen Drill Style, and barrelled a hard liner into right field.
He's palpably less shrill at the plate; I think even his grimace has eased. It says here that his strike zone numbers will also benefit.
Eyes slideways.
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Abraham Almonte
Smoked a home run, right handed, and it was a really nice 3-1 tater that he loaded up on. It wasn't a fly ball that happened to go over the fence; he looked to hit a home run, loaded up to hit a... Read More
MwaaHaHaHAAAA!, dept.
Posted by jemanji on 03/14/14
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... unless, for some reason, Paxton is assigned the split squad game. You'd certainly think the M's would be working the phones on ticket sales. Assuming that the Seattle Mariners have interest in generating money, Paxton will be on the ROOT broadcast at 1 pm today.
Getcher Hot Links:
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Mike Zunino: 'Really Impressed With James Paxton' - CBS Seattle
The article pretty much redirects you to a 7-minute audio interview of Zunino, on this-n-that. Nothing earthshaking, but ...
During the radio broadcast, even Ken Sims conceded that "to all intents and purposes, James Paxton is the Seattle... Read More
Hey Bill, 3/14/14
Posted by jemanji on 03/14/14
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3 Comments
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The original "Eureka!," from the Greek verb heurisko, "to find." Attributed to Archimedes, who when taking a bath, realized that he could use water displacement to calculate volume vs. weight and therefore density - allowing him to determine whether the king's crown was real gold. Or something.
The Bill James Online site is still a measly $3 per month, including the right to interact with the leading author. (I was going to call him a VP of the Red Sox, but that damns him with faint praise. Think about that.) Ya think BaseballHQ is gonna do that for yer? :- )
There were a dozen Hey... Read More
Arms: yes; Bats: not so much
Posted by Spectator on 03/14/14
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Here's our general scans of the Oriole farmhands.
Bats -- don"t get excited
Arms -- now we're talking
As always, all at marinerbrainstorm.com.
Well, the pic gets 3B and 2B right, at least
Posted by jemanji on 03/14/14
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3 Comments
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Q. First, the bad. Just so's we know that Doc has his head about him.
A. It's mystifying. He's played in the two TV games we've seen, and several times he has swung right through 91 MPH fastballs. I don't get that.
We're not talking about guessing curve, getting heat ... (er, I don't think so, anyway. Could that be it?). We're talking about being right on the pitch, timing-wise, and just not seeing the ball.
If you've never seen big league baseball on TV? Major league hitters don't anticipate 91 MPH fastballs, swing, and miss them. Almost never. It's like 3% of those swings... Read More
Forever Young, dept.
Posted by jemanji on 03/13/14
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Yang, dept.
OKDan, an excellent poster, gives us a fun report from onsite:
I just cannot foresee any situation in which Montero makes this team, regardless of his xbh's. Been down here in peoria for a few days, and his lack of interest in the game of baseball is palpable. Watched him take grounded on a side field, where he bobbled or straight up missed 30-40% of them. Then watched him stand in the back row during some group calisthenics, and he was barely even trying. Half-heartedly bending over while everyone else was going gull tilt.
During the game, the crowd over by 1st was letting him... Read More
Get back the best player in the deal. Especially this time
Posted by jemanji on 03/13/14
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7 Comments
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Input / Output:
Jon Heyman reports that a deal will "likely" happen soon
The Rays and O's need Franklin at 2B; the Mets (more dubiously) are thinking about him as a SS
The Jays "should" need Franklin. The same is true for several other teams
Franklin is a perfectly desirable starting 2B for the above teams NOW, and
Franklin has "sexy" -- All-Star -- upside
Oliver projects him (we hear) for 17.5 WAR over his first 5 years (compare Adam Jones' 12.5 WAR in 5 years)
Franklin is, as we speak, having an exciting spring training (especially from scouts' perspective)
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Mainframe Crunch:
Recall... Read More
First two of the Top 40 rolling out ...
Posted by Spectator on 03/13/14
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Here come the first entries in the 2014 Top 40.
No. 39 Bobby LaFromboise -- we still like him better than the other LH pen guys
No. 40 Aaron Barbosa -- we'd nominate the likeable undrafted overachiever for team mascot if not for his sky-high OBP
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The MB100 page has everything to date.
And the homepage is now just marinerbrainstorm.com, but all of your old links with "wordpress" in the URL will still work.
Posted by jemanji on 03/13/14
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Twitter Q-and-A on the Mariners - Bob Dutton, TNT
Bob's work is CLLLEEAAAAN, bro'. As to Taijuan, Bob expects him to hit the DL to open the season, with a few Tacoma starts and then right into the rotation whenever he's ready.
Who is looking good, a reader axs? "It's not a short list."
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Introducing Reformatted Batted Ball Data - Logan Davis, Lookout Landing
"Thirteen" comes up with his own way to represent fielders' scattercharts as "Plus/Minus" data. He takes into account the issue of whether a missed catch would have been made by 10% of fielders, or 80% of fielders, or what.
Picking... Read More
Tomorrow's news today
Posted by jemanji on 03/12/14
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6 Comments
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It's been a cold winter, hadn't it? :- )
Detect-O-Vision gets to take its hacks off the big, bright 60" high-def TV this morning. As you know, we live to serve.
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Abraham Almonte
McTeacher's Pet. Literally the only* guy in camp not playing well, too. He's 4-for-30 including 26 three-hop bouncers on the infield. As Dr. Lasker said, the theater of war despises petted favorites, and breeds heroes...
That 4-for-30 ain't off of Yu Darvish, seeing as Yu Darvish doesn't pitch in the Cactus League. Almonte is swinging badly against VERY fringe pitching. 's OK. He's still McTeacher's Pet... Read More
Born to play hardball, baby
Posted by jemanji on 03/12/14
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5 Comments
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Dustin Ackley
Defense.
In the top of the 5th, Emilio Bonifacio doubled down the LF line, a soft line drive over Seager that rolled fairly short ... Ackley blazed over there in NFL Combine speed, whipped the ball back in and Bonifacio was minus one base.
It was a scintillating play. And the thought occurred, hey, man. Compared to Matt Holliday, Raul Ibanez, Dyan Viciedo :- ), Josh Willingham, Johnny Gomes, Carlos Quentin, and almost everybody playing left field right now ... Dustin Ackley could be a SERIOUS plus left fielder. Soon.
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At the plate.
Dr. D saw a .gif at Lookout Landing... Read More
Like it or not, the Miller-Franklin runner-up needs to be cashed in
Posted by Spectator on 03/12/14
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Bear two things in mind:
Middle infielders have great value relative to non-middle infielders, and middle infielders who can hit have perhaps the most value of all
Barring catastrophic injury, the Mariners have locked up one of their two middle-infield spots for the next 10 — ten! — seasons
In other words, every middle infielder under contract to the Seattle Mariners is playing for one vacancy.
Or, in other other words, there are 13-year-olds who won’t even get drafted by the Mariners until 2019 who will still be playing for one vacancy. Well, probably … but you get the idea.
Full... Read More
Trea for Six?
Posted by Spectator on 03/10/14
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A draft update article is really just a means to entice Gordon to comment, which will usually be much better than the article itself.
So we'll see if it works.
In the meantime, speedy N.C. State shortstop Trea Turner is projected to be the best player available at No. 6, but the M's are also likely to have a range of high school options.
It's also quite possible that one of the top three college pitchers will drop to the No. 6 spot as well.
In other words, the draft is deep enough that an intriguing player should be there in the six spot.
All at Mariner Brainstorm.
Also: Tough Love Conquers All!
Posted by Spectator on 03/10/14
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The 2Legit Watch is back.
Kelly > Bloomie?
Jonesin' for an OF spot?
Ketel one to jump over a bunch of other guys?
And a Tough Love update on Mr. Zero Expectations, Jesus Montero
At Mariner Brainstorm.
But he warns you, the trade cost is steep
Posted by jemanji on 03/08/14
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7 Comments
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Q. What happened on Jesus Montero's two homers Saturday?
A. He sat back on the ball ... rocked his tree-trunk arms into blast position ... let the ball travel approximately to the catcher's glove ... and then lined a couple of 3-iron shots over the right field fence. Off RH pitchers.
Here's the first one.
The second one was more impressive: Jesus let the ball travel way deeeper (!) into the strike zone, and lined it down the 1B line over the wall.
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Q. Why has he become such a joke?
A. ... maybe I better leave this alone.
Mostly.
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He does deserve criticism. What he doesn't... Read More
Not exactly a ringing endorsement ...
Posted by Spectator on 03/08/14
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Lloyd McClendon has indicated his emerging choice of left-handed relief specialist — and it’s veteran Joe Beimel.
Beimel pitched for seven different organizations before taking 2013 off following Tommy John surgery.
But reports are that his arm is sound, and he is throwing in the upper 80s, which is pretty much where he was before the injury.
So … assume we get the Beimel glory days.
Which means?
A pitcher who gets by on the skin of his teeth — though his teeth have a bit more skin against LH hitters.
Full article at Mariner Brainstorm: here.
Kung Fu Hustle, dept.
Posted by jemanji on 03/07/14
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Gordon, Spec and others have been enthused about D.J. Peterson. Dr. D has not. It's not that I've had anything against him; I just didn't get him. Just as in "not knowing much about him." Certainly the national sites have not hesitated to slot Peterson wayyyy high on the org list, often ahead of James Paxton (almost before Peterson played any pro ball).
Sabermetrics, as opposed to tools scouting, devotes its attention to performance history. It's not like Peterson's performance record exceeds Ackley's and Zunino's, or anything like that. And we hadn't had a chance to see him.
.... Read More
And the mega-fizzler of the offseason
Posted by jemanji on 03/07/14
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Randy Wolf
As you know, his poor outing on Friday is not relevant. What is relevant, is that he is pure "smoke and mirrors," and has been for five years.
We could say, "What in the world is the point." Zduriencik could respond, "Hey, loyalty means a lot in this business. Just ask my old pals in the saber department..." And Jason Churchill could respond, "Nothing wrong with an old innings eater riding the bus for you in Tacoma, if he's willing to do it."
Here is our (too-) impassioned plea to keep Wolf far, far away from the Seattle Mariners' bullpen. Objectively speaking, Wolf provides... Read More
Dayan Viciedo and help from within ...
Posted by Spectator on 03/07/14
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So here is the final installments of the the “left-handed tilt” series. For now.
Thus far, we’ve found reason to be concerned — as Robinson Cano is — about the lack of above-average bats vs. left-handed pitching who aren’t coming off an entire missed season due to surgery on both knees (Corey Hart, of course).
At the same time, we’ve found nothing worth busting the bank or cashing in the Nick Franklin chip for.
But here are two more possible approaches:
Dayan Viciedo of the White Sox
Help from within: D.J. Peterson and, even ...
All at Mariner Brainstorm.
Ervin Santana fallback? Nnnnnaahhhhh ….
Posted by jemanji on 03/06/14
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Q. Is he a starting pitcher or a relief pitcher?
A. Ron Shandler insists that he's a reliever, but I'll take the other side on that one.
Specifically because my diagnosis would be that:
He does have better stats as an RP, but well within normal RP bonus
His repertoire is wayyyy SP
His "starter's rhythm" and mechanics are wayyyy SP
In the Mariners' case, for this season they could look at him as "long man who provides considerably more rotation stability than the alternatives." I'll buy that for a dollar. I think Phelps would be a Band-Aid all the way, but a well-placed Band-Aid.
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Q... Read More
Morales, Van Slyke ... and Zuumball!
Posted by Spectator on 03/06/14
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How to address the projected offensive deficit vs. left-handed pitching?
Kendrys Morales
Scott Van Slyke
Mike Zunino
All at Mariner Brainstorm.
Why do you think so many 27-year-olds ride those minors buses
Posted by jemanji on 03/05/14
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12 Comments
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Give me a couple of years, and I'll make that actress an overnight success. - Samuel Goldwyn of MGM
One press account said I was an overnight success. I thought, That was the longest night I've ever spent. - Sandra Cisneros
I believe in the idea of "real success" versus "perceived success." Most over the overnight success people achieve is simply perceived success. - Jon Gordon
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It's cliche to talk about guys like Abraham Almonte as overnight successes. And the only thing more trite than that is --- > pointing out that his overnight success took him 8 years.
There are indeed ML... Read More
We got a ticket to Ride, dept.
Posted by jemanji on 03/05/14
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4 Comments
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It gets harder and harder to write for your feebs. I'm trying to imagine one or two of you, who doesn't already know everything we're going to say before we say it. Ah, well ... I was lookin' for a job when I got this one. There's always the Armed Forces Day blogging circuit.
:- )
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Yes, We Know He's Not a Prospect, But ...
You know the most fundamental question about prospect evaluation? = how much you want to weight UPSIDE versus CHANCE OF SUCCESS. And that's a tougher question than it looks, because ... suppose that Nick Hill has a 90% chance of being Charlie Furbush, but Tyler Pike... Read More
Is Bloomie your DH vs. LH pitching?
Posted by Spectator on 03/05/14
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Robby says he won’t lie …
And “another right-handed bat” is his cry!
Robinson Cano, of course.
And since Cano is now Official Team Leader and Go-To Guy (which he should be, naturally), it’s interesting that he has such a keen interest in further loosening Kevin Mather’s newly loosened pursestrings.
But is he on-track regarding the left-handed tilt? Let’s examine.
Full article at Mariner Brainstorm: here.
That is the question ...
Posted by Spectator on 03/03/14
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Who’s 2 Legit 2 Quit and who’s … well … insufficiently Legit?
You know there are always some guys who pick up some springtime buzz, or show up “in the best shape ever” or maybe they “tweaked their arm action” — or whatever.
How to sort things out?
Our 2 Legit Watch is here to help.
Full article at Mariner Brainstorm: here.
An exciting evolution in his swing
Posted by jemanji on 03/02/14
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9 Comments
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This one could be sweet, an item that we track all season long.
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1. No idea where the Lookout Landing homies got a Spring Training vid of Ackley's homer - maybe Logan or Colin will enlighten us. But here is a replay of Ackley's long HR to CF today. Thanks LL.
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2. If Ackley's swing looked different? That's because it is. Ackley carries a low elbow and a very quiet upper body throughout the swing.
You may need to pause-itty pause pause the little video to see the low elbow and still upper body.
That keeps him shorter (and quicker) to the ball, and it also keeps his head quieter... Read More
Post-hype sleeper syndrome
Posted by jemanji on 03/02/14
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8 Comments
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That Ackley has disappointed, has failed to land with a Mike Trout splash, is a given.
That he could stop disappointing, as an Age-26* Post-Hype Sleeper, is also a given. Any Mariner fan should be able to decipher the fact that Ackley has special talent, talent far in excess of Kyle Seager's, for example.
He's had 1,471 plate appearances in the majors now. Carlos Guillen (also developed in the Mariner system) had 1,665 before his OPS+ leaped from nowhere to 143 and MVP territory. Here is a partial list of hitters who went from "mediocre" to "franchise hitters" at about 1,000 to 1,600... Read More
Grab 'im … ;- )
Posted by jemanji on 03/01/14
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2 Comments
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Scott Baker pitched in a spring training game on March 1st. If he executed those exact pitches, during the regular season, he would easily achieve a Quality Start (6-8 innings, 0-3 runs).
TYPICALLY, a start on March 1st isn't much you care about. (You'll notice that James Paxton's successful start, yesterday, passed without SSI comment.) IN THIS SPECIFIC CASE, Scott Baker just did himself a world of good.
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On Jan. 19th, the M's were rumored to be interested in Baker. Dr. D published this description of the way that Scott Baker pitches:
Lousy two-pitch FB/SL arsenal, plus a show-... Read More
The best part Friday was after everyone stopped caring ...
Posted by Spectator on 03/01/14
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It was a 12-1 laugher, and no one much cared what happened in the 8th and 9th innings, but some very cool Pitch f/x data can be found there, if you know where to look.
Carson Smith
Dominic Leone
And they give us a nice catchphrase (though not many remember the '70s TV show), given that they seem to be emulating a pair of bullpen aces from the recent past.
All at Mariner Brainstorm.